Learn · Supply and liquidity
How housing supply affects property markets
Stock versus flow: existing dwellings, planning approvals, building approvals, commencements, completions. ABS for macro, local registers for the lot.
Districts Research · ·
Supply
Pipeline is not stock. What is approved is not what has arrived.
- ExistingDwellings already there
- PipelineProposed, approved, underway
Swipe the panels.
Evidence order
How does housing supply affect prices and rents, and how do I research what is coming?
Housing supply is a stock plus a flow. The stock is the dwellings already there. The flow is what is being approved, started and finished. New dwellings matter at the margin because they add to the small number that trade or let each year, not because they are large against the total stock.
Use the Australian Bureau of Statistics for national and state totals. Use the council or state application register for the projects near a lot. Those two systems do not share a definition. A planning approval is not a building approval. A commencement is not a completion. A completion is not an occupied home. Districts does not forecast prices from the pipeline.
Name each rung of the ladder
Write the rung before you add two numbers together.
| Rung | What it is | Usual official home |
|---|---|---|
| Stock | Dwellings already built. Census counts them on Census night. ERP is people, not dwellings. | ABS Census dwelling counts. |
| Planning approval | Permission under a planning scheme to carry out a development, subject to conditions and a lapse clock. | Council or state DA / planning-permit register. Names differ by state. |
| Building approval | A building permit or approval to construct, recorded in the monthly ABS Building Approvals collection above value thresholds. | ABS Building Approvals, Australia. |
| Commencement | First physical building activity on site (materials fixed or labour expended, including site preparation). In a multi-unit job, ABS counts every dwelling in the job as commenced when the job starts. | ABS Building Activity, Australia. |
| Under construction | Jobs that have started and have not completed. | ABS Building Activity. |
| Completion | The building job is finished. All dwellings in that job are counted complete together. Progress on individual units is not tracked. | ABS Building Activity. |
| Occupied supply | Someone lives there. Not in the Building Activity survey. | Census occupancy, or a later inspection. Not the crane. |
Read the flow against turnover, not against the whole stock
Most dwellings do not sell in a given year. A few hundred completions can be small against 10,000 existing homes and large against the 200 houses that actually traded. Compare incoming dwellings with recorded sales and rental listings for the same class. See liquidity for turnover.
Worked national numbers, March and June 2026
ABS Building Activity, March quarter 2026, seasonally adjusted: 48,012 dwellings commenced (down 11.2 per cent on the December quarter) and 43,816 completed. In original terms, 243,864 dwellings were under construction, of which 90,972 were new houses. ABS Building Approvals, June 2026, seasonally adjusted: 18,328 dwelling units approved in that month.
What those figures establish: at national scale, more dwellings were started than finished in that quarter, and a large stock of work was already under way. What they do not establish: the pipeline on the street you are buying, the bedroom mix of those jobs, or that prices or rents in a named suburb will move. Other residential commencements fell 20.7 per cent in the same quarter after a rise the quarter before. A quarterly swing is not a suburb law.
Local supply lives on a different register
The monthly approvals collection is a leading indicator and the sampling frame for the quarterly activity survey. It is aggregated. The project next door sits on a council or state planning portal, with a status that may be lodged, approved, commenced or silent. Visibility differs by state and territory. Treat a missing local feed as unknown, not as zero. See nearby development applications.
Traps that collapse the ladder
- Adding planning approvals to building approvals and calling the sum incoming homes.
- Reading “growth area” as demand only. It is also a supply program. See greenfield supply.
- Assuming apartment completions move house prices by the same mechanism. See apartment supply.
- Forecasting price from supply alone.
How Districts shows supply, and what a lot page cannot show
Property pages show the nearby development pipeline where a register adapter exists: projects with status, distance and dwelling counts where recorded. The rental supply-pressure check uses that pipeline plus comparable rental listings. Suburb profiles show recorded sales counts so turnover is visible. Districts does not ingest the ABS Building Activity series onto a lot page and does not model absorption.
How to confirm which rung you are looking at
For a national or state total, open the current ABS Building Approvals or Building Activity release and read whether the table is original or seasonally adjusted. For a project, open the planning notice and, separately, ask the council whether a building approval has been issued. A site visit confirms commencement. Occupancy is a later fact.
Common questions
If commencements exceed completions, is the market oversupplied?
Not from that comparison alone. Under-construction stock can rise because jobs take time. Oversupply is a class in a place that is not being taken up at current prices or rents, observed from listings, time on market and failed campaigns.
How Districts derives it
Explore using Districts
Sources
Official material this page used. Dates are when Districts checked the page, not the life of the instrument.
Australian Bureau of Statistics
Building Activity, Australia, March 2026
National commencements, completions and dwellings under construction for the worked numbers.
Checked
Australian Bureau of Statistics
Building Activity, Australia methodology, March 2025
Dwelling definition; whole-job commencement and completion counting; institutional and temporary rooms are not dwellings.
Checked
Australian Bureau of Statistics
Building Approvals, Australia, June 2026
Monthly dwelling-unit approvals are a leading series, not completions.
Checked
Australian Bureau of Statistics
Building Approvals, Australia methodology, May 2026
What the approvals collection includes, and that an approval is not a start.
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Related guides
Supply and liquidity
Approvals vs completions: reading the supply pipeline
Planning permission is not a building approval, a start, a finish or an occupied home. No generic 1 to 3 year rule.
Supply and liquidity
How new apartment supply affects existing apartments
Ask substitute-competition questions of the pipeline. New stock is not a mechanical price law. Houses are usually a different market.
Supply and liquidity
How greenfield supply affects house markets
From rezoning to a titled lot to a completed house. House-and-land is not an established home. Servicing can stall a front.
Rental and holding risk
What is rental supply pressure?
A Districts construct: comparable rentals near the lot plus nearby residential projects. It does not forecast that rents will fall.
Research purposes only. Not personal financial advice, a valuation, or a planning certificate. Always speak to a licensed financial adviser before you act.