How to estimate achievable rent without guessing

Match type, bedrooms, parking and suburb (or an adjoining suburb of similar stock) before you look at the weekly figure. Five current listings in that class is a working target, not a legal minimum. If you cannot find five, say so.

Write a range, not a single week. The lower end is what tired or long-listed comps are still asking. The upper end is what freshly listed, well-presented comps are asking. If a listing has been reduced, prefer the current ask and note the original.

A listing ask is a marketing number. The achieved rent is the weekly figure in the residential tenancy agreement. Incentives (a rent-free week, a reduced first period, inclusions) sit outside both numbers unless you write them down.

NSW Fair Trading requires a fixed advertised price. A range, “offers from” or “by negotiation” is not permitted, and the landlord or agent must not solicit a higher rent. A tenant may still offer more unprompted. Other states have their own advertising and bidding rules; read that state’s official tenancy page. None of those rules converts an advertisement into a signed rent.

Bond lodgement records, where a revenue or fair-trading office publishes aggregates, are closer to achieved rent than a live listing feed. They still have a window, a dwelling mix and a lag. They are not this property’s lease. Census rent (ABS variable RNTD) is the weekly rent a household reported for the occupied dwelling it was counted in on Census night. It is years old by the time you read it and mixes every landlord type in the suburb.

A median is the middle of whatever sample the publisher used. If the sample is all advertised dwellings, a three-bedroom house is sitting next to a one-bedroom unit. If the sample is Census rents, it is sitting next to social housing and informal lets from Census night. Split the median by type and bedrooms before you even treat it as context. See listings versus vacancy before you borrow a vacancy percentage to “adjust” the rent.

Labelled illustration, not a live address. Subject: three-bedroom house, one car space, unfurnished. Suburb median advertised rent (all dwellings) $620 a week. Five current three-bedroom house listings in the suburb: $720 (8 days), $700 (14 days), $680 (31 days, reduced from $720), $650 (47 days, tired photos), $780 (4 days, pool, two car spaces).

What you can write: the class is asking about $650 to $720 for ordinary houses; $780 is a different inclusion set; the all-dwellings median is below the house class because it includes smaller dwellings. What you cannot write: that the subject will let at $690, or that a 5 per cent yield using $720 is “the” yield. See gross yield versus net yield.

• Three or more current comps in the same bedroom-and-type class, not borrowed from the next suburb without a note.
• At least one listing that has been reduced or has sat longer than a fortnight, so the upper end is not only fresh ads.
• The property’s own last advertised rent and the date it let, if it has a rental history.
• A written appraisal from a manager who has walked through, compared with the range rather than substituted for it.
• A later check on which comps let, which reduced, and which were withdrawn.
• Knowing how many comparable dwellings are under construction nearby. See rental supply pressure.

• Using the all-dwellings suburb median as the property’s rent.
• Comparing a house to units, or three bedrooms to two.
• Taking the appraisal letter as evidence.
• Ignoring days on market and reductions.
• Annualising a peak seasonal weekly ask as if it were a 52-week rent.

Honest achievable rent is one of the ten checks. Districts shows the advertised rent for the property if it is or was listed, comparable listings observed in the suburb for the same class, and the suburb aggregate. Each figure is labelled by source and date. They are not blended into a single estimated rent. Where comparable evidence is thin, the check says so. The rental yields methodology explains how rent observations are recorded.

A signed lease and rent ledger for an existing tenancy. For a vacant dwelling, a written appraisal after inspection, set beside your five-comp range. Revisit the live listings after a few weeks. Bond and tenancy rules differ by state and territory; use that jurisdiction’s official fair-trading or tenancy authority for advertising, bond and increase rules. Districts cannot see the rent a tenant finally signed for.