Geilston Bay (Tas.)

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Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, and new addresses validated by Districts since the Census the suburb of Geilston Bay's population is estimated at around 3,654 as of May 2026. This reflects an increase of 193 people (5.6%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 3,461 people. The change is inferred from the resident population of 3,650, estimated by Districts following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS (June 2025) and an additional 58 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 473 persons per square kilometer, providing significant space per person and potential room for further development. Geilston Bay's 5.6% growth since the 2021 census exceeded the SA4 region (3.9%), along with the Greater Hobart, marking it as a growth leader in the region. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by natural growth that contributed approximately 56% of overall population gains during recent periods, although all drivers including overseas migration and interstate migration were positive factors.

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The local workforce is characterized by high skill levels and strong representation in key public services, holding an unemployment rate of only 2.3%. As of March 2026, there are 1,908 residents employed. This unemployment figure is 2.1% lower than the 4.4% reported for Greater Hobart, while the participation rate is identical to the metropolitan average of 63.8%. Census data indicates that a modest 8.0% of the workforce worked from home, a figure that was likely influenced by temporary pandemic restrictions.

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Tax statistics from the ATO for financial year 2023 show local income levels sit below the national average. The median income for local taxpayers was $51,438, with an average income of $61,863, compared to Greater Hobart averages of $54,577 and $65,190. Factoring in Wage Price Index growth of 10.95% since financial year 2023, these figures are estimated at approximately $57,070 for the median and $68,637 for the average as of March 2026. The 2021 Census placed individual incomes at the 58th percentile ($845 weekly) and household incomes at the 42nd percentile. The weekly earnings bracket of $1,500 - 2,999 contains 32.3% of the community (1,180 individuals), matching the regional rate of 32.2%. On average, residents retain of their income after meeting housing costs, placing the suburb in the th decile of the SEIFA income index.

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Residential structures in the community are overwhelmingly detached, with houses representing 96.7% of dwellings and other formats like townhouses or apartments making up 3.4%, compared to metropolitan Hobart averages of 85.3% and 14.7%. Homeownership is high, with 41.2% owning their homes outright, while 41.8% have mortgages and 17.0% rent. The median monthly mortgage payment is $1,625 and the median weekly rent is $380, both higher than the metropolitan averages of $1,517 and $350. Compared nationally, local mortgage costs are below the Australian average of $1,863, while weekly rents exceed the national benchmark of $375.

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Families make up 68.7% of all local households, consisting of couples with children at 26.6%, couples without children at 30.3%, and single-parent homes at 10.2%. Non-family households account for 31.3%, dominated by single occupants at 28.9%, while group houses comprise 2.3%. The average household size is 2.3 people, just below the Greater Hobart average of 2.4.

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The proportion of residents with university degrees stands at 29.0%, slightly below the wider SA4 region average of 32.8%. Bachelor degrees are the most common higher qualification at 18.5%, followed by postgraduate degrees at 6.1% and graduate diplomas at 4.4%. Vocational and technical education is common, with 32.2% of residents aged 15+ holding qualifications, split between advanced diplomas (9.8%) and certificates (22.4%).

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Public transport infrastructure consists of 40 active bus stops within the suburb, serviced by 69 routes that combine to provide 5,225 passenger services each week. Access to public transport is high, with an average distance of 151 meters from homes to the nearest stop. The suburb is primarily a commuter area, with 86% of residents using private cars to travel to work and 10% utilizing the bus network. Household vehicle ownership averages 1.5 cars. A modest 8.0% of the workforce worked from home, according to the 2021 Census, which may reflect pandemic-related workplace patterns.

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The suburb faces notable public health concerns, with elevated rates of mortality and chronic illnesses observed across all age demographics, combined with a relatively low rate of private health insurance coverage at 52% of the population (~1,888 people).

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Cultural diversity is below the metropolitan average, with Australian-born residents making up 86.7% of the population, citizens representing 92.1%, and monolingual English speakers accounting for 93.3%. Christianity is the primary religion, followed by 46.1% of the population. Hinduism represents a minor but notable concentration at 1.4%, compared to 2.8% across Greater Hobart.

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The median age of 43 years is older than the Greater Hobart average of 39 and the national median of 38 years. Compared to the metropolitan area, there is a higher proportion of residents in the 65 - 74 bracket (12.2%) but a lower share of young adults aged 25 - 34 (12.3%). Since the 2021 Census, the 35 to 44 cohort grew from 13.3% to 15.1% and the 85+ cohort rose from 2.6% to 3.9%, while the 55 to 64 group declined from 13.2% to 10.4%. By 2041, the 45 to cohort is projected to expand by ( people), rising from to while the to and to groups are expected to shrink.

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Geilston Bay currently has an estimated 186 children under 5 years old, comprising approximately 115 children aged 0-2 and 77 children aged 3-4. This cohort grew by an estimated 4% since the previous census. though population forecasts indicate future decline, with an anticipated decrease of 0% by 2041 (to approximately 186 children). Meanwhile the 5-12 cohort currently amounts to 339. While growth has been positive birth rates observed in the area have been moderate, with approximately 10.6 births per 1,000 residents recorded over the latest two-year period analysed which ranks the area within the middle tier nationally.