Marshall (Vic.)

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Analysis of ABS population updates for the wider region and new addresses verified by Districts since the Census estimates the population of the suburb of Marshall at approximately 2,185 as of May 2026. This represents a decline of 114 people (5.0%) from the 2021 Census, which recorded 2,299 people. The variation is calculated from a resident population of 2,175, calculated by Districts using the latest ABS ERP data release (June 2025) along with 41 validated new addresses since the Census. This population level represents a density of 1,071 persons per square kilometer, which is consistent with the averages across areas analysed by Districts. Over the last ten years, the suburb of Marshall has shown steady growth with a compound annual rate of 2.0%, exceeding the SA3 region. Population expansion was mostly driven by interstate migration, which accounted for roughly 83.0% of overall population increases in recent times, though all factors including natural increase and overseas migration made positive contributions.

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Marshall possesses a qualified workforce with strong representation in essential services, showing an unemployment rate of 5.2% according to Districts statistical area aggregations. As of March 2026759 residents are employed, although the unemployment rate is 1.6% higher than the Regional Vic. average of 3.7%, and labor force participation is notably lower at 45.5% compared to the regional figure of 61.1%. Census details show that a modest 16.6% of residents worked from home, though this may reflect the influence of COVID-19 restrictions.

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According to the latest ATO statistics aggregated by Districts for the 2023 financial year, local income levels trail the national average. The median income for taxpayers in the area is $39,083, while the average income is $45,189, compared to Regional Vic. figures of $50,954 and $62,728. Factoring in Wage Price Index growth of 9.62% since the 2023 financial year, current estimates would be approximately $42,843 for median income and $49,536 for average income as of March 2026. Census results indicate that household, family, and personal incomes in Marshall all place between the 10th and 15th percentiles nationally. Regarding income brackets, 29.6% of residents (646 people) earn within the $400 - 799 range, contrasting with the broader region where the - bracket is most common at . Financial pressure from housing is severe, leaving only of income after housing costs, which ranks in the th percentile.

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At the time of the latest Census, the housing mix in Marshall consisted of 70.2% houses and 29.8% alternative dwellings such as semi-detached properties, apartments, and other housing types, compared to the Regional Vic. profile of 90.1% houses and 9.9% alternative dwellings. Home ownership in Marshall was lower than the regional rate at 34.9%, with the remaining properties being purchased under a mortgage (36.0%) or occupied by tenants (29.1%). The median monthly mortgage payment of $1,600 was notably higher than the Regional Vic. average of $1,430, and the median weekly rent of $390 also exceeded the regional average of $285. Nationally, local mortgage payments are below the Australian average of $1,863, while rental costs exceed the national median of $375.

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Families make up the majority of households at 56.8%, consisting of couples with children at 19.9%, couples without children at 28.8%, and single parent families at 7.3%. Non-family households account for the remaining 43.2%, with single person households representing 37.5% and group households making up 5.9%. The median household size of 2.1 persons is smaller than the Regional Vic. average of 2.4.

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Academic qualifications in Marshall are lower than regional benchmarks, with 24.1% of residents aged 15 and over holding a university degree, compared to 33.4% across VIC. This difference suggests scope for educational growth and training. Bachelor degrees are the most common tertiary qualification at 16.4%, followed by postgraduate degrees at 5.0% and graduate diplomas at 2.7%. Vocational qualifications are common, with 37.1% of residents aged 15 and over holding technical credentials, consisting of advanced diplomas at 14.1% and certificates at 23.0%.

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Analysis of transit options indicates 18 active public transport stops in Marshall, consisting of train services. These stops are connected to 18 distinct routes, which support 2,093 weekly passenger journeys. Transit access is highly rated, with residents living an average of 184 meters from the nearest stop. Because the area is mostly residential, many commuters travel outside the suburb, with private cars remaining the primary travel option for 93% of workers. Car ownership stands at an average of 1.1 vehicles per household, which is below the regional average. A share of 16.6% of residents worked from home, according to the 2021 Census, which may have been influenced by COVID-19 parameters.

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Health indicators highlight notable challenges for Marshall, based on Districts assessments of mortality and chronic illness. The prevalence of common health conditions is higher than average, particularly among older age groups, while the rate of private health insurance is very low at roughly 45% of the population, representing about 979 people. This is lower than the 50.5% recorded across Regional Vic. and the national average of 55.7%.

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Marshall aligns closely with the broader region regarding cultural diversity, with 81.7% of residents born in Australia, 88.6% holding citizenship, and 89.4% speaking only English at home. Christianity is the primary religion, representing 50.6% of the population. The most distinct variance is in the Other category, which accounts for 1.3% of the population compared to 0.8% across Regional Vic.

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The median age of 40 in Marshall is slightly below the Regional Vic. average of 43 but sits just above the Australian median of 38. Compared to the Regional Vic. average, the 25 - 34 age bracket is highly represented at 21.2% locally, while the 55 - 64 bracket is low at 3.1%. The local concentration of 25 - 34 year-olds is significantly higher than the national average of 14.6%. The local population has grown younger since the 2021 Census, with the median age dropping from 43 to 40. Specifically, the 25 to 34 age group increased from 15.1% to 21.2% of the population, and the 5 to 14 cohort grew from to . Conversely, the and over group fell from to , and the to bracket declined from to . Projections for point to notable shifts in local demographics. The to demographic is expected to grow substantially, rising by people () from to whereas the to group is projected to decrease by residents.

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Marshall currently has an estimated 152 children under 5 years old, comprising approximately 123 children aged 0-2 and 81 children aged 3-4. This cohort grew by an estimated 28% since the previous census. while population forecasts indicate future growth, with an anticipated increase of 79% by 2041 (to approximately 272 children). Meanwhile the 5-12 cohort currently amounts to 213. Recent growth has been driven by high birth rates observed in the area, with approximately 18.7 births per 1,000 residents recorded over the latest two-year period analysed which ranks the area among the top 20% of areas assessed nationally.