Ascot Vale (Vic.)

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Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, and new addresses validated by Districts since the Census Ascot Vale's population is estimated at around 16,465 as of May 2026. This reflects an increase of 1,268 people (8.3%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 15,197 people. The change is inferred from the resident population of 16,465, estimated by Districts following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS (June 2025) and an additional 277 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 4,276 persons per square kilometer, which lies in the top 10% of national locations assessed by Districts, making land in the area a highly-sought resource. Ascot Vale's 8.3% growth since census positions it within 0.7 percentage points of the SA3 area (9.0%), demonstrating competitive growth fundamentals. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by overseas migration that contributed approximately of overall population gains during recent periods.

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Ascot Vale possesses a highly educated workforce, with professional services showing strong representation, an unemployment rate of 8.1%, and 4.3% in estimated employment growth over the past year, based on Districts aggregation of statistical area data. As of March 2026, 9,474 residents are in work while the unemployment rate is 3.4% above Greater Melbourne's rate of 4.8%, showing room for improvement, and workforce participation is fairly standard (73.9% compared to Greater Melbourne's 70.2%). Based on Census responses, a high 45.5% of residents were found to work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered.

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Districts' latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 reveals that income in the suburb of Ascot Vale is extremely high nationally, with the median assessed at $60,331 while the average income stands at $82,886. This contrasts to Greater Melbourne's figures of a median income of $57,688 and an average income of $75,164. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 9.62% since financial year 2023, current estimates would be approximately $66,135 (median) and $90,860 (average) as of March 2026. From the 2021 Census, household, family and personal incomes all rank highly in Ascot Vale, between the 77th and 85th percentiles nationally. Income analysis reveals the $1,500 - 2,999 earnings band captures 26.3% of the community ( individuals), consistent with broader trends across the region showing in the same category. The substantial proportion of high earners ( above /week) indicates strong economic capacity throughout Ascot Vale. High housing costs consume of income, though strong earnings still place disposable income at the th percentile and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the th decile.

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Dwelling structure within Ascot Vale, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 46.0% houses and 54.1% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), in comparison to Melbourne metro's 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Meanwhile, the level of home ownership within Ascot Vale was slightly lagging that of Melbourne metro, at 27.7%, with the remainder of dwellings either mortgaged (33.5%) or rented (38.8%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was well above the Melbourne metro average at $2,458, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $370, compared to Melbourne metro's $2,000 and $390. Nationally, Ascot Vale's mortgage repayments are significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents are less than the national figure of $375.

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Family households dominate at 64.8% of all households, comprising 30.2% couples with children, 23.9% couples without children, and 9.1% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 35.2%, with lone person households at 28.8% and group households comprising 6.3% of the total. The median household size of 2.4 people is smaller than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

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Educational attainment in Ascot Vale significantly surpasses broader benchmarks, with 49.4% of residents aged 15+ holding university qualifications compared to 30.4% in Australia and 33.4% in VIC. This substantial educational advantage positions the area strongly for knowledge-based opportunities. Bachelor degrees lead at 30.7%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (13.5%) and graduate diplomas (5.2%). Vocational pathways account for 22.3% of qualifications among those aged 15+ – advanced diplomas (9.6%) and certificates (12.7%).

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Public transport analysis reveals 64 active transport stops operating within Ascot Vale comprising a mix of lightrail and buses. These stops are serviced by 9 individual routes, collectively providing 8,154 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as excellent, with residents typically located 157 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward - car remains the dominant mode at 70%, with 13% by train. Vehicle ownership averages 0.9 per dwelling, below the regional average. A high 45.5% of residents work from home (2021 Census; may reflect COVID-19 conditions).

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Analysis of health metrics shows strong performance throughout Ascot Vale, based on Districts' assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence with both young and old age cohorts seeing low prevalence of common health conditions , and the rate of private health cover found to be exceptionally high at approximately 60% of the total population (9,799 people). This compares to 56.7% across Greater Melbourne.

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Ascot Vale was found to be more culturally diverse than the vast majority of local markets, with 29.1% of its population born overseas and 26.8% speaking a language other than English at home. The main religion in Ascot Vale was found to be Christianity, which makes up 44.7% of people in Ascot Vale. However, the most apparent overrepresentation was in Islam, which comprises 5.4% of the population, compared to 5.6% across Greater Melbourne.

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With a median age of 37, Ascot Vale is equal to the Greater Melbourne figure of 37 and remains comparable to Australia's 38 years. The 45 - 54 age group shows strong representation at 13.2% compared to Greater Melbourne, whereas the 5 - 14 cohort is less prevalent at 10.0%. In the period since 2021, the 65 to 74 age group has grown from 7.4% to 8.7% of the population, while the 15 to 24 cohort increased from 10.5% to 11.7%. Conversely, the 5 to 14 cohort has declined from 11.3% to 10.0%. Looking ahead to 2041, demographic projections reveal significant shifts in Ascot Vale's age structure. Leading the demographic shift, the to group will grow by ( people), reaching from . Meanwhile, both to and to age groups will see reduced numbers.

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Ascot Vale currently has an estimated 971 children under 5 years old, comprising approximately 566 children aged 0-2 and 378 children aged 3-4. This cohort declined by an estimated 0% since the previous census. while population forecasts indicate future decline, with an anticipated decrease of 1% by 2041 (to approximately 964 children). Meanwhile the 5-12 cohort currently amounts to 1,315. Birth rates in the area have averaged 11.9 per 1,000 residents over the latest two-year period, a high rate (among the top 30% of areas assessed nationally). This rate has slowed down slightly in recent years however.