Bairnsdale (Vic.)

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According to assessments of ABS population statistics for the surrounding region and recent residential addresses verified by Districts since the Census, the suburb of Bairnsdale has an estimated population of 7,502 as of May 2026. This indicates a decline of 403 residents (5.1%) relative to the 2021 Census, which registered 7,905 individuals. This shift is calculated from a resident population count of 7,498, calculated by Districts using the latest ABS ERP release (June 2025) along with 134 validated new addresses added after the Census. The current population translates to a density of 120 persons per square kilometer, which indicates low density and possibilities for future construction. Interstate migration was the primary driver of population increases, representing roughly 54.0% of recent population inflows.

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Bairnsdale features a diverse employment profile covering both professional and manual positions, with a strong presence in public and community services, a jobless rate of 5.5%, and an estimated 1.8% difference above the Regional Vic. unemployment rate of 3.7%, based on Districts compilations of local statistical data. In March 2026, 3,306 residents were employed, and workforce participation was notably low (55.9% compared to 61.1% in Regional Vic.). Census data indicates that a small proportion of employed residents (9.6%) worked from home, although this may have been influenced by pandemic lockdowns.

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Based on Districts calculations of postcode-level ATO statistics released for financial year 2023, taxpayers in Bairnsdale recorded a median income of $44,530 and an average income of $52,914. These figures are below the national averages and compare to median and average values of $50,954 and $62,728 in Regional Vic. respectively. Adjusting for a Wage Price Index increase of 9.62% since financial year 2023 yields estimated values of approximately $48,814 (median) and $58,004 (average) as of March 2026. The 2021 Census reveals that household, family, and individual incomes in Bairnsdale lie between the 7th and 16th percentiles across the country. The largest income bracket contains 28.3% of taxpayers earning between $800 and $1,499 weekly (representing individuals), which contrasts with the broader region where earn between and . Housing affordability is a major challenge, with residents retaining only of their income after housing costs, placing the area in the th percentile.

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According to the most recent Census, the housing stock in Bairnsdale consisted of 84.2% detached houses and 15.7% other residential options such as apartments and townhouses, compared to 90.1% houses and 9.9% other dwellings in Regional Vic.. The rate of home ownership was slightly lower than the Regional Vic. benchmark, standing at 38.2%, while the remaining homes were occupied by mortgagors (27.2%) or renters (34.5%). The median monthly mortgage payment of $1,192 was lower than the Regional Vic. average of $1,430, and the median weekly rent was $270 compared to $285 regionally. On a national level, Bairnsdale's mortgage payments are significantly below the Australian average of $1,863, and weekly rents are much lower than the national figure of $375.

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Families make up the majority of households at 59.1%, which includes 19.5% couples with children, 24.9% couples without children, and 13.5% single parents. Non-family households represent the remaining 40.9%, with single-person households accounting for 37.5% and group households representing 3.4%. The median household size of 2.2 residents is below the Regional Vic. average of 2.4.

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The locality displays low levels of academic attainment, with university degree completion rates (16.6%) sitting significantly below the VIC state benchmark of 33.4%. Among those with degrees, bachelor qualifications are the most common at 11.2%, followed by postgraduate degrees at 3.0% and graduate diplomas at 2.4%. Vocational and technical qualifications are highly prevalent, with 39.6% of residents aged 15+ holding a trade credential, consisting of advanced diplomas (10.9%) and certificates (28.7%).

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Public transport services in Bairnsdale feature 31 active stops, including train services. These stops are served by 12 distinct routes, which provide a total of 261 weekly passenger journeys. Transport accessibility is good, with residents living an average of 286 meters from the nearest stop. The suburb is primarily residential, and most workers commute out of the area; private vehicles are the main transport mode at 92%, while 5% of residents walk. Household vehicle ownership averages 1.2 cars, which is below the regional average. A relatively low proportion of residents (9.6%) worked from home according to the 2021 Census, which may have been influenced by COVID-19 rules.

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Health indicators demonstrate significant challenges in Bairnsdale, according to Districts analysis of mortality statistics and chronic disease rates, with high rates of medical conditions observed in both younger and older age brackets. Furthermore, the rate of private medical insurance is particularly low, covering about 48% of residents (~3,588 people), compared to 50.5% in Regional Vic. and a national average of 55.7%.

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Bairnsdale has low cultural diversity compared to national benchmarks, with citizens making up 88.0% of the population, 87.3% born in Australia, and 93.1% speaking only English at home. Christianity is the dominant religion, practiced by 44.7% of the population. The most notable religious divergence is in the Other category, which represents 0.8% of residents, matching the 0.8% proportion found across Regional Vic..

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The median age of 44 years in Bairnsdale is similar to the Regional Vic. median of 43 and sits well above the national figure of 38 years. Compared to Regional Vic., Bairnsdale has a higher proportion of residents aged 25 - 34 (13.2%) and a lower proportion of those aged 45 - 54 (10.3%). Since the 2021 Census, the 35 to 44 age cohort has increased from 10.3% to 11.6% of the total population, while the 55 to 64 group decreased from 12.9% to 12.0%. By 2041, the age structure is projected to change significantly. The 25 to 34 age group is expected to lead this shift, growing by ( people) to reach from . The to cohort will see a smaller increase of , adding only residents.

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Bairnsdale currently has an estimated 442 children under 5 years old, comprising approximately 266 children aged 0-2 and 177 children aged 3-4. This cohort declined by an estimated 2% since the previous census. though population forecasts indicate future growth, with an anticipated increase of 48% by 2041 (to approximately 654 children). Meanwhile the 5-12 cohort currently amounts to 688. Birth rates in the area have averaged 10.9 per 1,000 residents over the latest two-year period, a moderate rate (within the middle tier nationally). This rate has slowed down slightly in recent years however.