Kincumber (NSW)

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Evaluations of ABS population updates for the wider region, alongside new addresses validated by Districts since the Census, indicate the population of Kincumber is approximately 7,411 as of May 2026. This represents an addition of 13 people (0.2%) since the 2021 Census, which documented a population of 7,398 residents. The adjustment is derived from the resident population of 7,409, calculated by Districts using the latest ERP data release from the ABS (June 2025) and an additional 7 validated new addresses after the Census date. This population level translates to a density ratio of 747 persons per square kilometer, which aligns closely with averages typical of locations assessed by Districts. Kincumber's 0.2% growth since the census is within 2.4 percentage points of the SA3 area (2.6%), demonstrating competitive growth fundamentals. Population gains in the area were mostly fueled by overseas migration, which served as almost the sole driver of population growth during recent periods.

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Kincumber has a skilled labor force, with essential services well represented, an unemployment rate of only 2.3%, and an estimated employment growth of 3.5% over the past year, based on Districts aggregation of statistical area data. As of March 2026, 3,320 residents are employed, while the unemployment rate is 1.8% below the Greater Sydney rate of 4.1%, and workforce participation is considerably lower (55.0% compared to Greater Sydney's 69.1%). Based on Census responses, a high 30.8% of residents worked from home, though the influence of Covid-19 lockdown restrictions should be kept in mind.

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The latest postcode level ATO data from Districts for financial year 2023 indicates that income in the suburb of Kincumber is below the national average, with the median recorded at $42,953 and the average income standing at $63,561. This is lower than Greater Sydney's figures of a median income of $60,817 and an average income of $83,003. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.32% since financial year 2023, current estimates would be approximately $47,386 (median) and $70,120 (average) as of March 2026. Census data shows household, family, and personal incomes in Kincumber all sit between the 21st and 25th percentiles nationally. Income analysis reveals 26.5% of the population (1,963 individuals) fall within the $1,500 - 2,999 income bracket, mirroring the surrounding region where occupy this range. Housing affordability pressures are intense, with only of income remaining, ranking at the th percentile, and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the th decile.

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The structure of dwellings in Kincumber, as measured at the latest Census, consisted of 65.6% houses and 34.3% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to the Sydney metro average of 55.9% houses and 44.1% other dwellings. Meanwhile, the level of home ownership in Kincumber was significantly above that of Sydney metro at 39.0%, with the remaining dwellings either mortgaged (39.3%) or rented (21.7%). The median monthly mortgage payment in the area was well below the Sydney metro average at $2,085, while the median weekly rent was recorded at $400, compared to Sydney metro averages of $2,427 and $470. Nationally, Kincumber's mortgage payments are significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents exceed the national figure of $375.

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Family households make up the majority at 66.2% of all households, comprising 27.1% couples with children, 27.2% couples without children, and 11.2% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 33.8%, with lone person households at 32.4% and group households making up 1.5% of the total. The median household size of 2.4 people is smaller than the Greater Sydney average of 2.7.

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The suburb faces educational hurdles, with university qualification rates (21.0%) significantly below the Greater Sydney average of 38.0%. This presents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees are the most common qualification at 15.2%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (3.9%) and graduate diplomas (1.9%). Vocational credentials feature prominently, with 41.2% of residents aged 15+ holding trade or technical qualifications, consisting of advanced diplomas (11.9%) and certificates (29.3%).

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Public transport analysis reveals 78 active transport stops operating within Kincumber, consisting of a mix of buses. These stops are serviced by 63 individual routes, collectively providing 831 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as excellent, with residents typically located 181 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward, and the car remains the dominant mode of transport at 92%. Vehicle ownership averages 1.2 per dwelling. A high 30.8% of residents work from home (2021 Census; which may reflect COVID-19 conditions).

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Health statistics show substantial challenges facing Kincumber, based on Districts' evaluation of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence, with common health conditions notable among both younger and older cohorts. Additionally, the rate of private health coverage slightly lags behind the average SA2 area, sitting at approximately 52% of the total population (~3,859 people). This compares to 59.9% across Greater Sydney.

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Kincumber was found to be below average in terms of cultural diversity, with 82.3% of its population born in Australia, 91.1% holding citizenship, and 94.9% speaking only English at home. The main religion in Kincumber was Christianity, representing 57.6% of residents. However, the most visible overrepresentation was in Judaism, which accounts for 0.3% of the population, compared to 0.8% across Greater Sydney.

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At 48 years, Kincumber's median age is significantly above the Greater Sydney average of 37 and also older than Australia's median of 38 years. The demographic breakdown shows 75 - 84 year-olds are particularly prominent (12.0%), while the 25 - 34 cohort is relatively smaller (8.0%) than in Greater Sydney. This concentration of 75 - 84 year-olds is well above the national figure of 6.1%. Since 2021, the 85+ cohort has increased from 7.1% to 8.4% of the population. Conversely, the 25 to 34 group has shrunk from 9.4% to 8.0% and the 55 to 64 bracket has fallen from to . Population forecasts for point to substantial demographic changes for Kincumber. The + group shows the strongest projected growth at , adding residents to reach . Senior residents (+) will drive of population growth, highlighting demographic aging trends. In contrast, population contractions are projected for the to and to cohorts.

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Kincumber currently has an estimated 377 children under 5 years old, comprising approximately 225 children aged 0-2 and 149 children aged 3-4. This cohort declined by an estimated 6% since the previous census. while population forecasts indicate future decline, with an anticipated decrease of 23% by 2041 (to approximately 292 children). Meanwhile the 5-12 cohort currently amounts to 720. Birth rates in the area have averaged 7.9 per 1,000 residents over the latest two-year period, a low rate (among the bottom 30% of areas assessed nationally). This rate has slowed down slightly in recent years however.