Old Bar (NSW)

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In the suburb of Old Bar, the population is estimated to have reached approximately 5,656 by May 2026, according to recent updates from the ABS combined with subsequent address validations by Districts. This represents a growth of 530 residents (10.3%) from the 5,126 individuals recorded during the 2021 Census. This upward trend is drawn from an estimated resident base of 5,626 calculated by Districts using the ABS June 2025 ERP data alongside 276 validated new addresses established post-Census. With these numbers, the suburb of Old Bar has a density of 233 persons per square kilometer, which indicates low-density living and potential for expansion. The growth rate of 10.3% in the suburb of Old Bar since the 2021 census outpaced the broader SA3 region (3.6%) and the Rest of NSW, establishing it as a regional growth leader. The primary driver of this population expansion was interstate migration, which accounted for roughly 91.0% of the net gains in recent times.

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The local workforce is characterized by a strong presence in essential services, with an unemployment rate standing at a low 3.1% based on statistical area aggregations. As of March 2026, there are 2,337 employed residents, keeping the local jobless rate 1.0% below the Regional NSW average of 4.1%. However, participation in the labour force is notably lower, sitting at 51.8% compared to the regional figure of 60.6%. Census data indicates that only a minor share of the workforce (11.2%) performed their roles from home, though this figure may be influenced by pandemic-related restrictions.

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According to the ATO postcode statistics released for the financial year 2023, taxpayers in Old Bar recorded a median income of $45,332 and an average income of $55,231. These figures are below national benchmarks, and compare to a median of $52,390 and an average of $65,215 across Regional NSW. Adjusting these figures for the 10.32% Wage Price Index growth since financial year 2023 yields estimated values of approximately $50,010 for the median and $60,931 for the average as of March 2026. In terms of household, family, and individual earnings, the Census ranks the area between the 11th and 13th percentiles nationally. The dominant weekly income bracket is $800 - 1,499, which accounts for 28.9% of residents (1,634 people), contrasting with the wider region where the - range is the most common at . Housing affordability is under substantial strain, with only of household income remaining after housing costs, placing the area in the th percentile.

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The housing stock in Old Bar at the time of the last Census consisted of 82.1% separate houses and 17.9% alternative housing types, such as apartments and townhouses, which is comparable to the Regional NSW split of 82.6% houses and 17.4% other dwellings. Outright home ownership in the suburb is high at 46.6%, well above the regional average, while mortgaged properties make up 26.1% and rental housing accounts for 27.3%. Typical mortgage costs are lower than the regional average, with a median monthly payment of $1,690, whereas weekly rents are higher at a median of $358, compared to regional averages of $1,733 and $330 respectively. On a national level, mortgage commitments are lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and rent prices sit below the countrywide figure of $375.

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Families make up the majority of households at 66.4%, which includes 21.1% couples with offspring, 32.4% couples without children, and 12.5% single-parent arrangements. Non-family households constitute 33.6% of the area, consisting of single-person households at 29.8% and group living situations at 3.4%. The average household size is 2.3 individuals, slightly below the Regional NSW average of 2.4.

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The region shows relatively low rates of higher education, with university graduation rates at 18.1% compared to the statewide average of 32.2%. This gap highlights both an educational shortfall and an opening for targeted learning programs. Among university graduates, bachelor degrees are the most common at 13.0%, with postgraduate degrees at 3.2% and graduate diplomas at 1.9%. Vocational and technical qualifications are highly prevalent, with 44.3% of residents aged 15+ holding a trade credential, consisting of advanced diplomas at 11.4% and certificates at 32.9%.

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A review of public transport shows there are 120 bus stops operational within the area. These stops service 10 distinct routes, which provide 140 passenger trips per week. Transport links are highly accessible, with residents living an average of 119 meters from their nearest stop. Due to the residential nature of the suburb, 95% of commuters travel out of the area using private vehicles. Average vehicle ownership stands at 1.3 cars per household, below the regional benchmark. Working from home was recorded for 11.2% of residents during the 2021 Census, which may have been influenced by pandemic conditions.

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Local health assessments indicate notable challenges, highlighted by chronic illness rates and mortality data across both younger and older demographics. The level of private health insurance is low, with approximately 49% of the population (~2,761 people) holding cover. This compares to 51.9% in Regional NSW and a national benchmark of 55.7%.

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The community has lower levels of ethnic diversity relative to wider averages, with 89.6% of residents born in Australia, 92.0% holding citizenship, and 96.9% speaking only English at home. The predominant religious affiliation is Christianity, representing 56.8% of the population, compared to 55.9% across Regional NSW.

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The median age of residents is 50, which is higher than the Regional NSW median of 43 and the national average of 38. The 65 - 74 age bracket is highly represented at 18.3% of the population, compared to 7.2% for the 15 - 24 age group. This 65 - 74 group is also well above the national share of 9.4%. Since the 2021 Census, the proportion of residents aged 75 to 84 has risen from 9.8% to 11.4%. In contrast, the 55 to 64 group decreased from 13.4% to 12.2%, and the 45 to 54 cohort fell from to . Projections suggest the age structure will change by with the cohort aged + expected to more than double, growing by people () from to .

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Old Bar currently has an estimated 299 children under 5 years old, comprising approximately 140 children aged 0-2 and 93 children aged 3-4. This cohort grew by an estimated 6% since the previous census. while population forecasts indicate future growth, with an anticipated increase of 36% by 2041 (to approximately 406 children). Meanwhile the 5-12 cohort currently amounts to 489. While growth has been positive birth rates observed in the area have been low, with approximately 6.7 births per 1,000 residents recorded over the latest two-year period analysed which ranks the area among the bottom 20% of areas assessed nationally. This rate has slowed down slightly in recent years however.