Warranwood (Vic.)

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In Warranwood, the local population is estimated to have reached approximately 4,959 by May 2026, a figure calculated from Districts' evaluation of ABS population updates for the wider region alongside newly verified addresses. This represents an addition of 139 residents, or 2.9%, since the 2021 Census, which documented 4,820 individuals. This update is derived from an estimated resident count of 4,946 established by Districts using the June 2025 ABS ERP data release, supplemented by 35 new validated addresses confirmed since the Census. Based on these figures, the suburb has a density of 1,653 persons per square kilometer, exceeding the typical density across areas evaluated nationwide by Districts. This 2.9% post-census growth rate trails the SA4 region's rate of 3.8% by 0.9 percentage points, indicating competitive local growth dynamics. The expansion was primarily fueled by overseas migration, which accounted for roughly 65.0% of the overall population increase in recent times.

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The local workforce is highly educated, featuring strong representation in essential services, an unemployment rate of only 2.2%, and an estimated job growth rate of 1.7% over the last year. As of March 2026, there are 2,928 working residents, and the unemployment rate is 2.5% below the Greater Melbourne average of 4.8%, while participation in the labour force sits at 73.8%, compared to 70.2% across Greater Melbourne. According to Census records, a high proportion of residents, at 38.7%, worked from home, though this figure may have been influenced by COVID-19 containment measures.

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According to aggregated ATO data from financial year 2023, personal income levels in the area exceed the national average. The median income among taxpayers is $57,444, and the average is $72,687, which compares to Greater Melbourne averages of $57,688 and $75,164. Adjusting these for Wage Price Index growth of 9.62% since financial year 2023 results in estimated figures of $62,970 for the median and $79,679 for the average as of March 2026. Census data shows household incomes are in the 95th percentile, sitting at $2,852 per week. Looking at the income distribution, 30.1% of the population, or 1,492 residents, earn in the $4000+ bracket, whereas the regional profile is led by the $1,500 - bracket at . The large proportion of high earners, with above per week, indicates strong financial capacity. Residents retain of their income after meeting housing costs, showing strong purchasing power, and the area is positioned in the th decile of the SEIFA index.

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At the time of the latest Census, the housing mix consisted of 98.4% detached houses and 1.6% other dwelling types, including semi-detached houses and apartments, compared to the Melbourne metro split of 67.9% houses and 32.1% other dwellings. Home ownership rates are much higher than the metropolitan average, with 38.2% owning outright, 52.6% paying off a mortgage, and 9.3% renting. The median monthly mortgage payment was $2,167, above the Melbourne metro average of $2,000. The median weekly rent was $423, compared to Melbourne metro's $390. Nationally, mortgage costs are higher than the Australian median of $1,863, and rents are higher than the national median of $375.

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Families make up the vast majority of households at 87.9%, comprising couples with children at 52.7%, couples without children at 24.8%, and single parents at 9.7%. Non-family households account for 12.1%, which is made up of lone-person households at 10.8% and group households at 0.8%. The median household size is 3.1 people, larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

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In Warranwood, the proportion of residents aged 15+ holding university degrees is 34.3%, slightly higher than the national average of 30.4%, pointing to a well-educated community. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 22.7%, with postgraduate qualifications at 7.2% and graduate diplomas at 4.4%. Vocational skills are also prominent, with 31.6% of residents aged 15+ holding a trade qualification, consisting of advanced diplomas at 12.3% and certificates at 19.3%.

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Public transport services in the area include 24 active stops serviced by a mix of buses. These stops accommodate 2 routes, providing a total of 509 weekly trips. Transit access is good, with the average distance to a stop being 310 meters. Given the residential nature of the suburb, most workers commute outside the area, and cars are the primary mode of travel for 94% of commuters. Vehicle ownership sits at 2.1 cars per household, which is higher than the regional average. A high proportion of residents, 38.7%, worked from home according to the 2021 Census, which may reflect COVID-19 conditions.

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Health indicators in the area show exceptional outcomes based on mortality and chronic disease prevalence, with low rates of common illnesses across all cohorts, and private health insurance cover is high, held by approximately 56% of the population, which represents ~2,754 individuals.

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The local population reflects regional averages for cultural diversity, with 82.0% of residents born in Australia, 93.2% holding citizenship, and 89.4% speaking only English at home. Christianity is the main religion, practiced by 52.0% of the population. The most distinct variance is in Judaism, which is practiced by 0.1% of the population, compared to 1.0% across Greater Melbourne.

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The median age of 41 years is higher than the Greater Melbourne average of 37 and the national average of 38. The 55 - 64 age group is over-represented locally at 15.2%, while the 25 - 34 bracket is under-represented at 6.7%. Since the 2021 Census, the 65 to 74 group has increased from 8.5% to 10.2% of the population, and the 75 to 84 bracket grew from 3.7% to 5.2%. In contrast, the 45 to 54 cohort fell from 17.1% to 15.3%, and the 25 to 34 cohort declined from to . Modeling suggests the age distribution will shift by with the to cohort projected to grow the most at , adding residents to total . The aging trend is set to continue, with residents aged and over accounting for of the projected growth, while declines are expected in the to and to brackets.

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Warranwood currently has an estimated 218 children under 5 years old, comprising approximately 145 children aged 0-2 and 97 children aged 3-4. This cohort grew by an estimated 3% since the previous census. though population forecasts indicate future decline, with an anticipated decrease of 8% by 2041 (to approximately 201 children). Meanwhile the 5-12 cohort currently amounts to 516. While growth has been positive birth rates observed in the area have been moderate, with approximately 8.9 births per 1,000 residents recorded over the latest two-year period analysed which ranks the area within the middle tier nationally. This rate has slowed down slightly in recent years however.