Carnes Hill (NSW)

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Based on analysis of ABS demographic updates for the broader area and new addresses validated by Districts since the Census, the population of the suburb of Carnes Hill is estimated at around 3,527 as of May 2026. This indicates a growth of 195 people (5.9%) since the 2021 Census, which documented a population of 3,332 people. The change is deduced from the resident population of 3,526, calculated by Districts using the latest ERP data release from the ABS (June 2025) along with an additional 49 validated new addresses post-Census. This headcount yields a density of 2,672 persons per square kilometer, placing the suburb of Carnes Hill in the highest quartile of national locations analyzed by Districts. Over the last ten years, the suburb of Carnes Hill has shown steady expansion with a 7.5% compound annual growth rate, exceeding the SA3 average. Population growth in the area was mostly fueled by natural increase, which made up approximately 58% of overall population gains in recent times, though overseas and interstate migration also made positive contributions.

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The suburb of Carnes Hill features a highly educated workforce, with professional services showing strong representation, an unemployment rate of only 2.5%, and 4.1% in estimated employment growth over the past year, based on Districts aggregation of statistical area data. As of March 2026, 2,008 residents are in work, while the unemployment rate is 1.7% below Greater Sydney's rate of 4.1%, and workforce participation is well beyond standard (78.1% compared to Greater Sydney's 69.1%). Based on Census responses, a high 42.6% of residents were found to work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered.

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According to Districts' aggregation of the latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year 2023, the median income among taxpayers in the suburb of Carnes Hill was $64,262 with the average level standing at $77,757. This is well above average nationally and compares to levels of $60,817 and $83,003 across Greater Sydney respectively. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.32% since financial year 2023, current estimates would be approximately $70,894 (median) and $85,782 (average) as of March 2026. According to 2021 Census figures, household incomes rank exceptionally at the 93rd percentile ($2,630 weekly). Income brackets indicate the largest segment comprises 35.9% earning $1,500 - 2,999 weekly ( residents), reflecting patterns seen regional levels where similarly occupy this range. Higher earners represent a substantial presence with exceeding weekly, indicating strong purchasing power within the community. High housing costs consume of income, though strong earnings still place disposable income at the th percentile and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the th decile.

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Dwelling structure within the suburb of Carnes Hill, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 98.3% houses and 1.7% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), in comparison to Sydney metro's 55.9% houses and 44.1% other dwellings. Meanwhile, the level of home ownership within the suburb of Carnes Hill was lagging that of Sydney metro, at 16.5%, with the remainder of dwellings either mortgaged (65.8%) or rented (17.7%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was well above the Sydney metro average at $2,700, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $600, compared to Sydney metro's $2,427 and $470. Nationally, the suburb of Carnes Hill's mortgage repayments are significantly higher than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents are substantially above the national figure of $375.

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Family households dominate at 93.3% of all households, comprising 69.3% couples with children, 13.2% couples without children, and 10.0% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 6.7%, with lone person households at 5.9% and group households comprising 0.4% of the total. The median household size of 3.8 people is larger than the Greater Sydney average of 2.7.

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Educational qualifications in the suburb of Carnes Hill trail regional benchmarks, with 28.6% of residents aged 15+ holding university degrees compared to 38.0% in Greater Sydney. This gap highlights potential for educational development and skills enhancement. Bachelor degrees lead at 21.6%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (5.6%) and graduate diplomas (1.4%). Trade and technical skills feature prominently, with 30.7% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas (13.6%) and certificates (17.1%).

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Public transport analysis reveals 5 active transport stops operating within the suburb of Carnes Hill comprising a mix of buses. These stops are serviced by 17 individual routes, collectively providing 2,026 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically located 399 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward - car remains the dominant mode at 90%, with 6% by train. Vehicle ownership averages 2.0 per dwelling, above the regional average. A high 42.6% of residents work from home (2021 Census; may reflect COVID-19 conditions).

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Analysis of health metrics shows strong performance throughout the suburb of Carnes Hill, based on Districts' assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence with younger cohorts in particular seeing very low prevalence of common health conditions , and the rate of private health cover found to be very high at approximately 58% of the total population (~2,032 people). This compares to 59.9% across Greater Sydney.

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The suburb of Carnes Hill is among the most culturally diverse areas in the country, with 46.1% of its population born overseas and 60.6% speaking a language other than English at home. The main religion in the suburb of Carnes Hill was found to be Christianity, which makes up 60.9% of people in the suburb of Carnes Hill. However, the most apparent overrepresentation was in Islam, which comprises 13.4% of the population, substantially higher than the Greater Sydney average of 6.8%.

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With a median age of 33, the suburb of Carnes Hill is materially younger than the Greater Sydney figure of 37 and is substantially under Australia's 38 years. Relative to Greater Sydney, the suburb of Carnes Hill has a higher concentration of 5 - 14 residents (18.0%) but fewer 25 - 34 year-olds (11.5%). This 5 - 14 concentration is well above the national 12.0%. Since the 2021 Census, residents have aged by 1.0 years on average, with the median rising from 32 to 33. In particular, the 15 to 24 age group has grown from 13.1% to 15.7% of the population, while the 65 to cohort increased from to . Conversely, the to cohort has declined from to and the to group dropped from to . Demographic modeling suggests the suburb of Carnes Hill's age profile will evolve significantly by . The to age cohort is projected to grow exceptionally, expanding by people () from to . Demographic aging continues as residents and older represent of anticipated growth. Conversely, population declines are projected for the to and to cohorts.

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Carnes Hill currently has an estimated 257 children under 5 years old, comprising approximately 126 children aged 0-2 and 85 children aged 3-4. This cohort declined by an estimated 7% since the previous census. while population forecasts indicate future decline, with an anticipated decrease of 9% by 2041 (to approximately 233 children). Meanwhile the 5-12 cohort currently amounts to 436. Birth rates in the area have averaged 11.5 per 1,000 residents over the latest two-year period, a moderate rate (within the middle tier nationally). This rate has slowed down slightly in recent years however.