Kearns (NSW)

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Based on demographic evaluations from the ABS for the surrounding region, alongside new address validations compiled by Districts after the Census, the suburb of Kearns is calculated to have approximately 2,678 inhabitants in May 2026. This represents a contraction of 15 people (0.6%) compared to the 2021 Census, which counted 2,693 individuals. This shift is derived from a local resident base of 2,634, calculated by Districts using the ABS's June 2025 ERP release, with an additional 1 validated new addresses confirmed since the Census. Such a population size results in a density of 1,134 persons per square kilometer, matching typical benchmarks observed across places tracked by Districts. Local population increases were mostly supported by natural increase, which was responsible for roughly 65.0% of all population additions during the latest timeframes.

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The workforce in the suburb of Kearns features high skill levels, with strong representation in industrial and production fields, a low unemployment rate of 3.7%, and an annual employment growth estimate of 7.2% derived from regional data compiled by Districts. There are 1,648 working residents as of March 2026, while the local jobless rate sits 0.4% lower than the Greater Sydney average of 4.1%. Workforce participation is particularly elevated at 80.9%, compared to 69.1% across the Greater Sydney region. Census figures show a substantial 30.7% of the labor force working from home, though this may reflect temporary pandemic restrictions.

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According to the latest postcode-level tax data from the ATO for the 2023 financial year, taxpayers in the suburb of Kearns earn a median income of $61,113 and an average of $67,769. This aligns closely with national averages, and compares to a median of $60,817 and average of $83,003 in Greater Sydney. Applying a 10.32% increase based on the Wage Price Index since the 2023 financial year, current estimates point to approximately $67,420 (median) and $74,763 (average) as of March 2026. Census data shows local household, family, and personal incomes occupy the 71st percentile nationally. The local earnings profile is dominated by the $1,500 - 2,999 bracket, containing 39.5% of residents (1,057 people), which is higher than the regional share of 30.9%. Although high housing costs consume of income, strong earnings keep disposable income at the th percentile, and the SEIFA index ranks the area in the th decile.

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At the latest Census, the residential mix in the suburb of Kearns was comprised of 95.9% standalone houses and 4.1% other dwellings such as townhouses, units, or alternative options, in contrast to the metropolitan Sydney split of 55.9% houses and 44.1% other dwellings. The home ownership rate matched the metropolitan average at 27.8%, with the remaining properties held under mortgages (57.1%) or rented (15.1%). The median monthly mortgage payment of $2,037 was well below the Sydney metro median of $2,427, while the median weekly rent was $420 compared to the Sydney metro average of $470. Nationally, local mortgage commitments are higher than the Australian median of $1,863, while weekly rents sit significantly above the national median of $375.

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Families make up the vast majority of local households at 85.2%, consisting of couples with children at 48.0%, couples without children at 21.9%, and single parents at 13.8%. Non-family households account for the remaining 14.8%, which includes single-person households at 13.4% and group shared homes at 1.4%. The median household occupancy of 3.1 people is larger than the Greater Sydney average of 2.7.

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Educational profiles present challenges in the suburb of Kearns, with university attainment rates at 18.4%, well below the Greater Sydney average of 38.0%. This highlights a clear opportunity for target-specific educational programs. Bachelor degrees represent 13.0% of credentials, with postgraduate degrees at 3.6% and graduate diplomas at 1.8%. Vocational and trade capabilities are strong, with 38.7% of residents aged 15+ holding practical qualifications, split between advanced diplomas (11.1%) and certificates (27.6%).

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Public transit audits show 15 active transport stops in the suburb of Kearns, consisting of bus services. These stops support 14 distinct routes, delivering 630 passenger trips weekly. Accessibility is highly rated, with residents living an average of 170 meters from the nearest stop. Due to the area's residential nature, most workers commute out of the suburb, with private vehicles remaining the primary choice for 94% of commuters. Average vehicle ownership sits at 1.9 cars per household, exceeding regional norms. A high 30.7% of residents work from home, based on the 2021 Census, which may reflect pandemic-related conditions.

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Evaluations of mortality statistics and chronic health conditions indicate that the suburb of Kearns faces notable health issues, with common ailments present across the population, particularly within older groups. The rate of private health coverage sits just ahead of the SA2 average at approximately 54% of the population (~1,438 people), compared to 59.9% across the Greater Sydney region.

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Cultural diversity in the suburb of Kearns is higher than in most equivalent markets, with 24.8% of the population born outside Australia and 24.5% speaking a non-English language at home. Christianity is the primary religion, followed by 60.7% of residents. The most distinct religious overrepresentation is Islam, which accounts for 9.3% of local residents compared to 6.8% across Greater Sydney.

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The median age in the suburb of Kearns is 36 years, matching closely with the Greater Sydney median of 37 and slightly below the Australian median of 38. Compared to the wider Sydney region, the suburb of Kearns has a larger share of residents aged 55 - 64 (12.4%) and a smaller share aged 25 - 34 (11.9%). Since the 2021 Census, the 75 to 84 cohort has increased from 2.3% to 3.9% of the population, and the 65 to 74 group rose from 6.4% to 7.6%. Meanwhile, the 55 to 64 group decreased from 14.3% to 12.4%, and the 25 to group fell from to . Demographic models project significant shifts by with the + cohort expected to grow by (adding residents to reach ). Older residents (+) are projected to account for of total growth, highlighting aging trends, while the to and to age cohorts are expected to experience net contractions.

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Kearns currently has an estimated 168 children under 5 years old, comprising approximately 114 children aged 0-2 and 76 children aged 3-4. This cohort grew by an estimated 2% since the previous census. though population forecasts indicate future decline, with an anticipated decrease of 14% by 2041 (to approximately 144 children). Meanwhile the 5-12 cohort currently amounts to 314. Recent growth has been driven by high birth rates observed in the area, with approximately 14.9 births per 1,000 residents recorded over the latest two-year period analysed which ranks the area among the top 20% of areas assessed nationally.