Churchill (Qld)

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Evaluating ABS population data updates for the surrounding region and recent residential address validations by Districts following the Census, the suburb of Churchill (Qld) has a projected population of approximately 1,959 in May 2026. This indicates a growth of 117 residents (6.4%) compared to the 2021 Census, which recorded 1,842 individuals. This shift is determined from the estimated resident count of 1,959, compiled by Districts using the recent ERP information released by the ABS in June 2025 along with 9 validated new addresses added since the Census. Such a population count results in a density of 1,145 persons per square kilometer, which matches normal values observed in other regions analyzed by Districts. The expansion rate of 6.4% since the census sits within 2.9 percentage points of the countrywide rate of 9.3%, showing healthy growth dynamics. The expansion was mostly propelled by natural increase, which accounted for roughly 70.0% of total population additions in recent times.

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The local labor force is diverse, encompassing both professional and trade roles, with a solid footprint in key service industries, an unemployment rate of 8.3%, and an estimated job growth rate of 11.6% over the preceding year, according to Districts regional figures. In March 2026, there are 902 employed locals, though the unemployment rate is 4.0% higher than the Greater Brisbane level of 4.3%, and the activity rate in the workforce is notably lower at 61.0% compared to the metropolitan average of 70.4%. Census figures indicate that just 7.4% of the working population operated from home, though this may reflect temporary pandemic restrictions.

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According to the most recent postcode ATO statistics for financial year 2023, taxpayers in Churchill earn a median of $40,665 and an average of $45,373. These levels are lower than the national benchmarks, and compare to a metropolitan median of $58,236 and average of $72,799 in Greater Brisbane. Factoring in Wage Price Index growth of 11.36% since financial year 2023, estimated earnings as of March 2026 are approximately $45,285 for the median and $50,527 for the average. Census records show that individual, family, and household incomes in Churchill lie between the 11th and 13th percentiles nationally. Income distribution figures show that 31.7% of residents (621 individuals) earn between $800 - 1,499, whereas the metropolitan average is led by the - category at . Financial pressure from housing is high, leaving residents with of their income, which places the suburb in the th percentile.

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Census data reveals that standalone houses make up 84.8% of the housing stock in Churchill, with the remaining 15.2% comprised of multi-unit residences like townhouses or apartments, compared to 73.5% houses and 26.5% other dwellings in Greater Brisbane. The proportion of outright home owners is 26.0%, matching the metropolitan average, while 33.5% of homes are mortgaged and 40.5% are occupied by tenants. Typical monthly mortgage costs stand at $1,213, which is lower than the Brisbane average of $1,863, and the median weekly rent is $300, compared to the metro rate of $380. When compared nationally, local mortgage costs are well below the Australian average of $1,863, and weekly rents are much lower than the national figure of $375.

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Families constitute 68.9% of local households, consisting of 23.5% couples with children, 18.8% couples without children, and 24.1% single-parent homes. The remaining 31.1% are non-family arrangements, which include 26.7% single-person households and 4.4% shared dwellings. The typical household size of 2.5 residents is slightly below the metropolitan Brisbane average of 2.6.

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Higher education attainment is low, with only 9.6% of residents holding a university degree, compared to the Greater Brisbane average of 30.5%. Among these qualifications, bachelor degrees are most common at 7.2%, followed by graduate diplomas at 1.5% and postgraduate degrees at 0.9%. Conversely, vocational and technical training is very common, as 43.7% of the population aged 15+ have completed practical certifications, comprising advanced diplomas at 8.7% and certificates at 35.0%.

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Assessments of local transit options show 8 active bus stops servicing Churchill. These locations connect to 1 distinct route, supplying 213 weekly passenger journeys. Accessibility is favorable, with typical dwellings situated 214 meters from a stop. Since it is mostly a residential suburb, most workers commute out of the area; private vehicles are the primary mode of travel at 89%, while 6% of commuters use trains. Households average 1.3 cars. A small portion of 7.4% of residents worked from home according to the 2021 Census, which was likely affected by pandemic restrictions.

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Districts health indicators show significant health issues in Churchill, with various ailments affecting residents across all age groups. Additionally, private health insurance uptake is low at about 45% of the population (~885 residents), compared to 55.8% in Greater Brisbane and the national average of 55.7%.

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Cultural diversity is lower than average, with 89.0% of the community holding citizenship, 87.5% born locally, and 92.7% communicating only in English at home. The dominant religious affiliation is Christianity, followed by 42.7% of residents. In contrast, Hinduism is represented at 1.2%, compared to 2.2% across Greater Brisbane.

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Having a median age of 34, the local population is younger than the Greater Brisbane average of 36 and the national figure of 38. Compared to the capital region, there is a higher representation of young people aged 15 - 24 (16.9%) but fewer children aged 5 - 14 (10.6%). Since the 2021 Census, the 15 to 24 cohort rose from 15.1% to 16.9% of the total, and the 75 to 84 group grew from 3.7% to 5.4%. In contrast, the 5 to 14 bracket fell from 13.4% to 10.6%, and the 25 to demographic decreased from to . By forecasts indicate major demographic shifts. The cohort of residents aged and over is projected to grow the fastest at , adding people to total . Seniors aged and older are expected to make up of overall population growth, whereas the to and to brackets are projected to shrink.

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Churchill currently has an estimated 137 children under 5 years old, comprising approximately 84 children aged 0-2 and 56 children aged 3-4. This cohort grew by an estimated 13% since the previous census. though population forecasts indicate future decline, with an anticipated decrease of 22% by 2041 (to approximately 107 children). Meanwhile the 5-12 cohort currently amounts to 203. Recent growth has been driven by high birth rates observed in the area, with approximately 13.9 births per 1,000 residents recorded over the latest two-year period analysed which ranks the area among the top 20% of areas assessed nationally.