Fern Bay (NSW)

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Determined from an evaluation of ABS population updates for the wider region and new address listings validated by Districts since the Census, the suburb of Fern Bay is home to approximately 4,339 people as of May 2026. This represents an addition of 293 residents (7.2%) relative to the 2021 Census, which registered a population of 4,046 individuals. The estimate is derived from a resident headcount of 4,332 calculated by Districts using the ABS's June 2025 ERP data release, combined with 37 validated new addresses identified since the Census date. This population size results in a density ratio of 522 persons per square kilometer, indicating low congestion and scope for future expansion. The suburb of Fern Bay's 7.2% growth rate since the 2021 census outperformed the Rest of NSW (4.9%) and the local SA4 region, establishing it as a frontrunner for expansion in the district. This population growth was chiefly fueled by interstate migration, which accounted for approximately of recent population gains, though other contributors such as overseas migration and natural growth also registered positive values.

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The local workforce is characterized by high skill levels and a strong presence in essential services, alongside a low unemployment rate of 3.7%, according to Districts' compiled regional statistics. As of March 2026, the area has 1,792 employed residents. The unemployment rate is 0.4% lower than the Regional NSW average of 4.1%, whereas labor force participation is lower, standing at 53.9% compared to the 60.6% recorded across Regional NSW. Census data indicates that 31.5% of workers commute from home, though this figure should be interpreted in the context of pandemic lockdown measures.

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According to the latest ATO tax statistics for the postcode level released for financial year 2023, taxpayers in the suburb of Fern Bay earn a median income of $58,273 and an average income of $70,705. These figures exceed national benchmarks, comparing to a median of $52,390 and an average of $65,215 across Regional NSW. Adjusting for Wage Price Index growth of 10.32% since financial year 2023, estimated earnings as of March 2026 would be roughly $64,287 (median) and $78,002 (average). Census findings from 2021 show that household, family, and individual incomes are moderate, placing between the 31st and 35th percentiles. In terms of earnings distribution, the $1,500 - 2,999 weekly band accounts for 27.4% of the population (representing 1,188 individuals), which aligns with the wider metropolitan trend of . The population exhibits distinct economic tiers, ranging from living in modest circumstances to who are high earners. Affordable housing options are limited, with residents retaining only of their income after housing costs, ranking in the th percentile, while the SEIFA index for income places the area in the th decile.

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At the time of the latest Census, the residential landscape in Fern Bay was dominated by separate houses at 98.2%, with semi-detached structures, apartments, and alternative dwellings making up the remaining 1.8%. This contrasts with Regional NSW, where separate houses account for 82.6% and other dwellings comprise 17.4%. Outright home ownership in the area was significantly higher than the regional average, standing at 47.9%, while the remaining properties were either held with a mortgage (27.2%) or occupied by tenants (24.9%). The median monthly mortgage payment was notably high at $2,299, and the median weekly rent was $510, compared to regional figures of $1,733 and $330 respectively. On a national level, mortgage commitments in the area are substantially above the Australian median of $1,863, and typical rent levels exceed the national average of $375.

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Families represent the majority of local households at 68.5%, consisting of couples with children (27.7%), couples without children (33.0%), and single parent families (7.1%). Single persons (29.9%) and shared households (1.8%) make up the remaining 31.5% of non-family households. The median household size is 2.4 people, matching the Regional NSW average.

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Educational attainment levels in Fern Bay are lower than state-wide averages, with 22.8% of residents aged 15+ holding a university degree, compared to 32.2% across NSW. This variance points to opportunities for increasing educational access and regional skill levels. Bachelor degrees are the most common tertiary qualification at 15.1%, followed by postgraduate degrees at 5.1% and graduate diplomas at 2.6%. Vocational qualifications are common, with 39.8% of residents aged 15+ holding trade credentials, consisting of advanced diplomas (11.2%) and certificates (28.6%).

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Analysis of the local network shows 20 active public transport stops in Fern Bay, consisting of bus services. These stops are connected to 36 distinct routes, which support a total of 725 passenger journeys per week. Transport access is rated as favorable, with residents living an average of 234 meters from their nearest stop. Because of the suburb's residential nature, the vast majority of workers travel outside the area, with private vehicles remaining the principal mode of travel for 98% of commuters. Average car ownership stands at 1.3 vehicles per household, which is below the regional average. A high proportion of residents, 31.5%, work from home, based on 2021 Census data which may reflect pandemic-era workplace restrictions.

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Health outcomes in the suburb of Fern Bay are slightly below average, based on Districts' evaluation of regional mortality and long-term health condition trends. The prevalence of standard medical conditions is largely average overall, though higher than the national benchmark among older demographics. Private health insurance coverage is high, with approximately 55% of residents (~2,381 people) holding cover, compared to 51.9% across Regional NSW.

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The suburb of Fern Bay has a lower level of cultural diversity compared to national benchmarks, with Australian-born residents making up 87.5% of the population, citizens accounting for 91.6%, and 95.2% speaking only English at home. The predominant religion is Christianity, representing 57.5% of the local population, compared to 55.9% across Regional NSW.

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The median age in Fern Bay is 42 years, which is close to the Regional NSW average of 43 years but older than the national median of 38 years. Demographic data shows a high concentration of residents in the 75 - 84 age cohort (11.9%), whereas the 55 - 64 bracket is smaller (7.1%) than is typical for Regional NSW. The concentration of 75 - 84 year-olds is higher than the national figure of 6.1%. Since 2021, the cohort aged 15 to 24 grew from 7.8% to 10.2% of the population, and the group aged 75 to 84 rose from 10.3% to 11.9%. Meanwhile, the 55 to bracket shrank from to , and the to cohort fell from to . Projections for suggest significant shifts, with the to age bracket expected to grow by , adding residents to reach a total of .

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Fern Bay currently has an estimated 282 children under 5 years old, comprising approximately 131 children aged 0-2 and 88 children aged 3-4. This cohort grew by an estimated 4% since the previous census. while population forecasts indicate future growth, with an anticipated increase of 50% by 2041 (to approximately 423 children). Meanwhile the 5-12 cohort currently amounts to 409. While growth has been positive birth rates observed in the area have been moderate, with approximately 8.9 births per 1,000 residents recorded over the latest two-year period analysed which ranks the area within the middle tier nationally.