Swan Hill (Vic.)

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According to evaluation of ABS demographic updates for the surrounding region, alongside new address files verified by Districts following the Census, the suburb of Swan Hill has an estimated population of 10,783 as of May 2026. This represents a contraction of 403 people (3.6%) compared to the 2021 Census, which recorded 11,186 people. This shift is calculated from a resident population of 10,750, calculated by Districts using the most recent ABS ERP release (June 2025) plus an extra 228 validated new addresses added since the Census date. This population level translates to a density of 85 persons per square kilometer, offering ample room per resident and capacity for future housing projects. The -3.6% contraction in the suburb of Swan Hill since the census is within 0.8 percentage points of the wider SA3 region (-2.8%), showing that population challenges are shared across the broader territory. Demographic gains in the suburb of Swan Hill were mostly fueled by net overseas migration, which accounted for roughly of all population increases during recent times.

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Swan Hill features a balanced labor market containing both white-collar and blue-collar roles, with a strong presence in essential services and an unemployment rate of only 1.6%, aggregated from local statistical areas by Districts. In March 2026, there are 5,422 employed residents, and the unemployment rate is 2.1% lower than the Regional Vic. average of 3.7%, while the participation rate is relatively typical (63.8% compared to 61.1% in Regional Vic.). Census data indicates that a modest 6.9% of local workers operated from home, though this figure may have been influenced by COVID-19 pandemic restrictions.

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According to the latest ATO postcode statistics for the financial year 2023 compiled by Districts, residents in the suburb of Swan Hill earn less than the national average, with a median income of $47,926 and an average income of $57,197. These figures compare to a median of $50,954 and an average of $62,728 across Regional Vic. Adjusted for Wage Price Index growth of 9.62% since the financial year 2023, estimated incomes stand at approximately $52,536 (median) and $62,699 (average) as of March 2026. Data from the 2021 Census indicates that household, family, and individual incomes in Swan Hill are modest, placing between the 28th and 39th percentiles. The largest income bracket is the $1,500 - 2,999 range, which accounts for 32.9% of residents (3,547 people), mirroring the broader metropolitan trend of in this bracket. Housing costs consume a manageable portion of earnings, with of income retained, though overall disposable income ranks below average at the nd percentile.

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According to the most recent Census, residential structures in Swan Hill consisted of 83.1% detached houses and 16.9% alternative housing types (including townhouses, apartments, and other dwellings), compared to 90.1% houses and 9.9% alternative structures across Regional Vic. The rate of home ownership in Swan Hill was 36.2%, which is lower than the rate for Regional Vic., with the remaining households split between properties with a mortgage (31.1%) and rental properties (32.7%). The median monthly mortgage payment was $1,300, which is below the Regional Vic. average of $1,430, while the median weekly rent was $235, compared to the regional median of $285. On a national level, monthly mortgage payments in Swan Hill are notably lower than the Australian average of $1,863, and weekly rents are much lower than the national figure of $375.

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Families make up the majority of households at 66.0%, which is composed of 25.0% couples with children, 28.4% couples without children, and 11.4% single-parent households. The remaining 34.0% consists of non-family households, with single-person households representing 30.6% and group living situations accounting for 3.4%. The average household size in the area is 2.3 people, slightly below the Regional Vic. average of 2.4.

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Educational attainment levels present a clear area for improvement, as the proportion of residents with a university qualification (16.4%) is significantly lower than the VIC average of 33.4%. This gap highlights both an educational challenge and a clear focus area for future programs. Among higher degrees, bachelor qualifications are the most common at 11.7%, followed by graduate diplomas at 2.4% and postgraduate degrees at 2.3%. Vocational and technical training are highly represented, with 36.8% of residents aged 15+ holding qualifications in these areas, consisting of 10.3% with advanced diplomas and 26.5% with certificates.

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An analysis of public transport networks shows 56 active transit stops in Swan Hill, consisting of bus and rail options. These stops are served by 16 different routes, which provide a total of 367 weekly passenger services. Access to transit is rated as good, with residents living an average of 233 meters from their nearest stop. Because Swan Hill is primarily residential, the majority of working residents commute outside the area, with private cars remaining the primary travel mode at 92%, followed by walking at 6%. The average number of vehicles per household is 1.4. A relatively low 6.9% of residents worked from home, according to the 2021 Census, which may have been influenced by COVID-19 pandemic conditions.

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Residents face notable health difficulties, as indicated by Districts' analysis of local mortality and chronic illness rates, with various medical issues present in both younger and older populations, alongside a relatively low rate of private health insurance coverage at approximately 50% of the population (~5,337 people) compared to the national average of 55.7%.

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Cultural diversity in Swan Hill is lower than the regional average, with citizens making up 85.1% of the population, 85.9% of residents born in Australia, and 86.8% using only English at home. Christianity is the dominant religious affiliation, representing 50.6% of residents. The most notable difference is in the Other category, which accounts for 1.9% of the local population compared to 0.8% across Regional Vic.

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The median age of residents is 38, which is lower than the Regional Vic. average of 43 but matches the national average of 38. The 25 - 34 age bracket is highly represented at 15.7% of the population compared to Regional Vic., while the 65 - 74 bracket is less common at 9.6%. Since the 2021 Census, the 25 to 34 age group has increased from 14.7% to 15.7% of the population, whereas the 45 to 54 group has decreased from 10.1% to 9.3%. Future projections indicate that the local age profile will shift by 2041. The 45 to 54 cohort is expected to increase by 11% ( people), growing from to residents. Reflecting an aging population, residents aged and older are projected to account for of all population growth, while the to and to age groups are projected to contract.

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Swan Hill currently has an estimated 787 children under 5 years old, comprising approximately 463 children aged 0-2 and 309 children aged 3-4. This cohort grew by an estimated 5% since the previous census. though population forecasts indicate future decline, with an anticipated decrease of 6% by 2041 (to approximately 736 children). Meanwhile the 5-12 cohort currently amounts to 1,089. Recent growth has been driven by high birth rates observed in the area, with approximately 15.1 births per 1,000 residents recorded over the latest two-year period analysed which ranks the area among the top 20% of areas assessed nationally.