Carrum Downs (Vic.)

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According to the latest calculations from Districts based on ABS regional figures and newly confirmed addresses, the suburb of Carrum Downs has an approximate population of 23,549 as of May 2026. Comparing this to the 2021 Census count of 21,976 people, the area has expanded by 1,573 people (7.2%). This shift is determined from a resident population base of 23,464 calculated by Districts using the June 2025 ABS ERP publication, alongside 605 validated new addresses since the Census date. With these numbers, the population density stands at 1,159 persons per square kilometer, aligning closely with typical levels across similar locations. The 7.2% growth rate of the suburb of Carrum Downs since the 2021 census outpaced both the broader SA4 region (3.2%) and the SA3 area, establishing it as a primary growth driver. Overseas arrivals were the primary driver, accounting for roughly 52.0% of the overall population expansion in recent times.

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The local community holds a diverse range of skills, with the building sector showing exceptionally strong representation. The unemployment rate is 4.7%, showing steady employment patterns over the past year based on aggregated regional data. In March 2026, employed residents numbered 12,822, with the jobless rate matching the Greater Melbourne benchmark of 4.8%, and the participation rate aligning with the metropolitan average of 70.2%. Census data indicates that a moderate 16.4% of the working population performed their jobs from home, although this figure was likely influenced by pandemic restrictions.

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Aggregated tax data from the ATO for the financial year 2023 indicates that taxpayers in the suburb of Carrum Downs recorded a median income of $53,792 and an average income of $59,706. These figures sit below national benchmarks and compare to medians of $57,688 and averages of $75,164 across Greater Melbourne. Adjusting for a 9.62% increase in the Wage Price Index since financial year 2023, estimated incomes as of March 2026 would be around $58,967 for the median and $65,450 for the average. Census results from 2021 show that household, family, and individual incomes are modest, falling between the 45th and 52nd percentiles. Looking at the income brackets, 40.1% of the local population (9,443 individuals) earn between $1,500 - 2,999, which is comparable to the of residents across the wider region in this bracket. Affordability pressures are high, with residents retaining only of their income, which puts the area in the rd percentile for disposable income.

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According to the latest Census, residential properties in the suburb of Carrum Downs consisted of 79.1% houses and 20.8% semi-detached dwellings, townhouses, and apartments, compared to Greater Melbourne where houses make up 67.9% and alternative options account for 32.1%. Outright home ownership stood at 22.9%, which is lower than the metropolitan rate, with the remaining properties occupied by mortgage holders (49.0%) or renters (28.1%). The median monthly mortgage payment of $1,733 was lower than the metropolitan median of $2,000, while the weekly rent median was $370, compared to the Melbourne metro average of $390. Across Australia, local mortgage payments are below the national average of $1,863, and weekly rents are lower than the national figure of $375.

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Families make up the majority of households at 70.1%, which includes couples with children (31.1%), couples without children (22.4%), and single parents (15.5%). The remaining 29.9% are non-family households, with single-person households representing 26.7% and group houses accounting for 3.1%. The average household size is 2.5 people, slightly below the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

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Low levels of university completion present a challenge for the area, with only 17.0% of residents holding a degree compared to the Greater Melbourne average of 37.0%. This highlights a clear need and opportunity for focused educational programs. Among degree holders, bachelor qualifications are the most common at 12.1%, with postgraduate degrees at 3.1% and graduate diplomas at 1.8%. Vocational education is highly prevalent, as 41.2% of residents aged 15+ hold technical qualifications, consisting of advanced diplomas (11.8%) and certificate-level training (29.4%).

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Public transit analysis indicates there are 105 active transit stops in the area, consisting of bus services. These stops are connected to 6 distinct routes, which provide a total of 1,566 passenger trips per week. Accessibility is good, with residents living an average of 214 meters from their nearest transit point. The neighborhood is primarily residential, and most workers commute out of the area, with private vehicles being the primary mode of travel at 93%. Car ownership is 1.4 vehicles per dwelling. Work-from-home arrangements were utilized by 16.4% of residents at the time of the 2021 Census, which may reflect pandemic-related conditions.

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Data on mortality and the prevalence of long-term illnesses point to significant health struggles in the area, affecting both youth and elderly demographics. Additionally, the rate of private health insurance is low, covering approximately 50% of the local population (~11,887 people). This is below the Greater Melbourne rate of 56.7% and the national rate of 55.7%.

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The area displays higher levels of cultural diversity than most property markets, with 25.9% of the population born outside Australia and 18.2% using a non-English language at home. Christianity is the main religious affiliation, representing 40.7% of residents. The most pronounced deviation from regional norms is in Judaism, which is practiced by 0.3% of the local population compared to 1.0% across Greater Melbourne.

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The median age of 36 years is close to the Greater Melbourne average of 37 and slightly below the Australian median of 38. The age distribution shows a larger share of residents in the 55 - 64 age bracket (12.1%) compared to Greater Melbourne, but a smaller share of young adults aged 15 - 24 (11.5%). Since the 2021 Census, the proportion of residents aged 35 to 44 has increased from 14.6% to 16.0%, while the 25 to 34 age group has decreased from 16.8% to 15.5%. Future age-profile modeling suggests significant shifts by 2041, with the 45 to 54 cohort projected to grow by 28%, adding residents to reach while the to group is expected to contract by residents.

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Carrum Downs currently has an estimated 1,624 children under 5 years old, comprising approximately 960 children aged 0-2 and 640 children aged 3-4. This cohort grew by an estimated 7% since the previous census. though population forecasts indicate future decline, with an anticipated decrease of 1% by 2041 (to approximately 1,605 children). Meanwhile the 5-12 cohort currently amounts to 2,157. Recent growth has been driven by high birth rates observed in the area, with approximately 14.5 births per 1,000 residents recorded over the latest two-year period analysed which ranks the area among the top 20% of areas assessed nationally.