South Grafton (NSW)

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South Grafton has an estimated residency of approximately 6,409 individuals as of May 2026, calculated through Districts assessments of ABS demographic data alongside refreshed address records. This indicates an expansion of 121 residents (1.9%) from the 2021 Census, which registered 6,288 people. The updated estimate is derived from a base resident count of 6,390 calculated using ABS June 2025 ERP data, supplemented by 11 newly validated residential addresses since the census. The suburb's density stands at 257 persons per square kilometer, offering low density and potential for future spatial growth. This 1.9% post-census growth rate is within 2.7 percentage points of the wider SA4 region (4.6%), showing respectable local expansion. Net interstate migration served as the principal driver of these gains, accounting for roughly 67.0% of the overall population increase.

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The local economy is supported by a mix of blue-collar and white-collar occupations, particularly in key service industries, with an unemployment rate of 10.2% and estimated employment growth of 2.5% over the past year. In March 2026, employed residents numbered 2,120, though the unemployment rate was 6.1% higher than the Regional NSW benchmark of 4.1%, and workforce participation of 46.3% was lower than the regional average of 60.6%. Census figures showed only 6.4% of employed locals worked from home, a figure likely influenced by past pandemic restrictions.

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According to Districts' most recent postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023, South Grafton's median income among taxpayers stands at $38,128, while the average reaches $44,964. These figures sit below the national mean and lag behind Regional NSW's median of $52,390 and average of $65,215. Applying a Wage Price Index growth of 10.32% since financial year 2023, projected values for March 2026 would be approximately $42,063 for the median and $49,604 for the average. Income data from Census 2021 indicates that household, family and personal incomes in South Grafton all fall between the 2nd and 5th percentiles nationally. Distribution data shows the $400 - 799 bracket dominates with 30.9% of residents (1,980 people), contrasting with the surrounding region where the - bracket leads at . Lower income households are notably prevalent, with earning below weekly, indicating affordability pressures for many residents. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only of income remaining, ranking at the th percentile.

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The local housing stock at the latest Census consisted of 90.4% separate houses and 9.6% semi-detached, terraced, or apartment dwellings, compared to Regional NSW where separate houses made up 82.6% and other styles made up 17.4%. Homeowners without a mortgage represented 36.1% of households, slightly below the regional rate, while the remaining properties were mortgaged (26.6%) or rented (37.2%). The median monthly mortgage cost was $1,144, and the median weekly rent was $280, compared to regional averages of $1,733 and $330. Nationally, local mortgage costs are below the Australian average of $1,863, and rents are below the national average of $375.

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Families comprise 64.2% of all households, consisting of couples with children at 19.2%, couples without children at 23.8%, and single parents at 19.9%. Single person households represent 32.1% of dwellings, while group houses make up 3.5%, with non-family households totaling 35.8%. The average household size is 2.4 residents, matching the Regional NSW average.

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Attainment levels for higher education are low, with 9.0% of residents holding a university qualification compared to the NSW average of 32.2%. Bachelor degrees are held by 6.3% of the population, followed by postgraduate degrees at 1.6% and graduate diplomas at 1.1%. Vocational and trade qualifications are common, with 41.8% of residents aged 15+ holding a credential, split between advanced diplomas at 8.0% and certificate-level qualifications at 33.8%.

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The suburb is serviced by 82 public transport stops, including a mix of rail and bus links. These stops accommodate 69 routes, providing a total of 884 weekly passenger trips. Transport links are accessible, with residents living an average of 187 meters from their nearest stop. Most residents travel out of the suburb for work, with private vehicles remaining the primary commute choice for 93% of workers. Household vehicle ownership averages 1.1 cars, which is below the regional average. Census data from 2021 showed that 6.4% of residents worked from home, a figure that may reflect pandemic conditions.

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Local health indicators show challenges, with notable mortality rates and chronic illnesses affecting several age cohorts. Private health insurance coverage is low, with only 45% of residents (~2,871 people) holding cover, compared to 51.9% across Regional NSW and a national average of 55.7%.

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The local population has low cultural diversity, with citizens making up 89.5% of residents, 94.0% of the population born in Australia, and 97.2% speaking only English at home. Christianity is the dominant religion, practiced by 53.3% of residents, compared to 55.9% across Regional NSW.

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The median age of 39 years is younger than the Regional NSW average of 43 and close to the national average of 38. The suburb has a higher proportion of children aged 5 - 14 (14.8%) compared to Regional NSW, but fewer residents aged 65 - 74 (10.5%). Since the 2021 Census, the 35 to 44 age cohort rose from 10.5% to 12.1% of the population, while the 55 to 64 group fell from 12.1% to 11.1%. By 2041, demographic shifts will alter the age profile, with the 25 to 34 age group projected to grow by 19% (141 people) to reach from while the to and to groups are projected to contract.

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South Grafton currently has an estimated 422 children under 5 years old, comprising approximately 239 children aged 0-2 and 160 children aged 3-4. This cohort grew by an estimated 7% since the previous census. while population forecasts indicate future growth, with an anticipated increase of 18% by 2041 (to approximately 497 children). Meanwhile the 5-12 cohort currently amounts to 667. While growth has been positive birth rates observed in the area have been moderate, with approximately 11.5 births per 1,000 residents recorded over the latest two-year period analysed which ranks the area within the middle tier nationally. This rate has slowed down slightly in recent years however.