Grafton (NSW)

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Based on analysis of ABS population updates for the broader area, and new addresses validated by Districts since the Census Grafton's population is estimated at around 11,035 as of May 2026. This reflects an increase of 472 people (4.5%) since the 2021 Census, which reported a population of 10,563 people. The change is inferred from the resident population of 10,991, estimated by Districts following examination of the latest ERP data release by the ABS (June 2025) and an additional 96 validated new addresses since the Census date. This level of population equates to a density ratio of 871 persons per square kilometer, which is relatively in line with averages seen across locations assessed by Districts. Grafton's 4.5% growth since census positions it within 0.1 percentage points of the SA4 region (4.6%), demonstrating competitive growth fundamentals. Population growth for the area was primarily driven by interstate migration that contributed approximately 67.0% of overall population gains during recent periods.

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Grafton has a balanced workforce spanning white and blue collar employment, with essential services sectors well represented, an unemployment rate of 6.0%, and 2.0% in estimated employment growth over the past year, based on Districts aggregation of statistical area data. As of March 2026, 4,354 residents are in work while the unemployment rate is 1.9% above Regional NSW's rate of 4.1%, and workforce participation lags significantly (51.0% compared to Regional NSW's 60.6%). Based on Census responses, a low 8.0% of residents were found to work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered.

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As per Districts' latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year 2023, the suburb of Grafton's median income among taxpayers is $46,464, with an average of $54,795. This is below the national average, and compares to Regional NSW's median of $52,390 and average of $65,215. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 10.32% since financial year 2023, current estimates would be approximately $51,259 (median) and $60,450 (average) as of March 2026. Census 2021 income data shows household, family and personal incomes in Grafton all fall between the 11th and 17th percentiles nationally. The earnings profile shows the $1,500 - 2,999 bracket dominates with 28.0% of residents (3,089 people), reflecting patterns seen the region where similarly occupy this range. Housing affordability pressures are severe, with only of income remaining, ranking at the th percentile.

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Dwelling structure within Grafton, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 76.3% houses and 23.7% other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), in comparison to Regional NSW's 82.6% houses and 17.4% other dwellings. Meanwhile, the level of home ownership within Grafton was slightly lagging that of Regional NSW, at 36.2%, with the remainder of dwellings either mortgaged (28.7%) or rented (35.0%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was well below the Regional NSW average at $1,348, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $300, compared to Regional NSW's $1,733 and $330. Nationally, Grafton's mortgage repayments are significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents are substantially below the national figure of $375.

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Family households dominate at 61.4% of all households, comprising 20.4% couples with children, 25.1% couples without children, and 14.6% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 38.6%, with lone person households at 35.4% and group households comprising 3.3% of the total. The median household size of 2.2 people is smaller than the Regional NSW average of 2.4.

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The area faces educational challenges, with university qualification rates (15.4%) substantially below the NSW average of 32.2%. This represents both a challenge and an opportunity for targeted educational initiatives. Bachelor degrees lead at 11.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (2.2%) and graduate diplomas (1.9%). Trade and technical skills feature prominently, with 41.5% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials – advanced diplomas (9.1%) and certificates (32.4%).

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Public transport analysis reveals 95 active transport stops operating within Grafton comprising a mix of buses. These stops are serviced by 66 individual routes, collectively providing 962 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as good, with residents typically located 208 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward - car remains the dominant mode at 91%, with 6% walking. Vehicle ownership averages 1.1 per dwelling, below the regional average. A relatively low 8.0% of residents work from home (2021 Census; may reflect COVID-19 conditions).

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Critical health challenges are evident across Grafton, based on Districts' assessment of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence with a range of health conditions having marked impacts on both younger and older age cohorts , and the rate of private health cover found to be very low at approximately 49% of the total population (~5,368 people). This compares to 51.9% across Regional NSW. The national average is 55.7%.

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Grafton was found to be below average in terms of cultural diversity, with 92.5% of its population being citizens, 93.3% born in Australia, and 96.2% speaking English only at home. The main religion in Grafton was found to be Christianity, which makes up 56.8% of people in Grafton. This compares to 55.9% across Regional NSW.

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With a median age of 43, Grafton is equal to the Regional NSW figure of 43 and well above the 38-year national average. The age profile shows 85+ year-olds are particularly prominent (4.7%), while the 65 - 74 group is comparatively smaller (11.1%) than in Regional NSW. Since the 2021 Census, the 35 to 44 age group has grown from 10.6% to 12.1% of the population. Conversely, the 55 to 64 cohort has declined from 12.5% to 11.6%. Looking ahead to 2041, demographic projections reveal significant shifts in Grafton's age structure. Leading the demographic shift, the 25 to 34 group will grow by 18% ( people), reaching from . Conversely, population declines are projected for the to and to cohorts.

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Grafton currently has an estimated 684 children under 5 years old, comprising approximately 412 children aged 0-2 and 274 children aged 3-4. This cohort grew by an estimated 16% since the previous census. while population forecasts indicate future growth, with an anticipated increase of 16% by 2041 (to approximately 791 children). Meanwhile the 5-12 cohort currently amounts to 1,147. While growth has been positive birth rates observed in the area have been moderate, with approximately 11.4 births per 1,000 residents recorded over the latest two-year period analysed which ranks the area within the middle tier nationally. This rate has slowed down slightly in recent years however.