Keysborough (Vic.)

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Analysis by Districts of ABS population statistics for the surrounding region and validation of new addresses since the Census indicates the population of the suburb of Keysborough is approximately 32,010 as of May 2026. Compared to the 2021 Census population of 30,018, this represents a growth of 1,992 people (6.6%). This variation is deduced from the estimated resident population of 31,977, which Districts calculated from the ABS June 2025 ERP release and 327 validated new addresses added since the Census. With this population level, the density ratio reaches 1,475 persons per square kilometer, which exceeds the national average monitored by Districts. Over the last ten years, the suburb of Keysborough has experienced stable development patterns with a compound annual growth rate of 2.3%, exceeding the rate of the SA3 region. Overseas migration was the primary driver of this growth, accounting for approximately 75.0% of the total population gains in recent times.

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The local workforce is characterized by high levels of education, with strong representations in the industrial and manufacturing sectors. The unemployment rate is low at 3.6%, and estimated employment growth reached 4.6% over the past year, according to Districts data compiled for the statistical area. In March 2026, there were 17,476 employed residents, with an unemployment rate 1.1% lower than the 4.8% recorded across Greater Melbourne, while labor force participation was close to the Greater Melbourne average of 70.2%. Census data indicates that a moderate 21.0% of residents worked from home, though this figure may have been affected by COVID-19 lockdown restrictions.

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Taxpayer statistics from the ATO for financial year 2023 aggregated by Districts show that local income levels are lower than the national average. The median income for local taxpayers is $51,155 and the average income is $61,282, compared to Greater Melbourne figures of $57,688 and $75,164 respectively. Adjusting these figures for a Wage Price Index increase of 9.62% since financial year 2023 yields updated estimates of approximately $56,076 for the median and $67,177 for the average as of March 2026. According to the 2021 Census, household incomes in the area are at the 64th percentile ($1,991 weekly), while individual personal incomes are at the 34th percentile. Looking at income distribution, the largest group of residents is in the $1,500 - 2,999 range, accounting for of the population ( people), which is similar to the wider region where of people fall into this bracket. High housing costs account for of income, though solid overall earnings keep disposable income at the th percentile, and the local SEIFA income index ranks in the th decile.

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Data from the latest Census shows that houses made up 89.5% of local residential properties, while semi-detached homes, apartments, and other dwellings accounted for the remaining 10.5%. This contrasts with the broader Melbourne metropolitan area, where houses comprised 67.9% and alternative dwellings made up 32.1% of the stock. Home ownership levels were higher than the metropolitan average at 32.7%, with remaining properties occupied by residents with a mortgage (48.1%) or renters (19.2%). The median mortgage payment in the area was higher than the metropolitan average at $2,167 per month, and the median weekly rent was $421, compared to Melbourne metropolitan figures of $2,000 and $390 respectively. On a national level, local mortgage repayments are much higher than the Australian average of $1,863, and rents are also considerably higher than the national figure of $375.

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Families make up the vast majority of households at 84.7%, consisting of couples with children (48.8%), couples without children (21.5%), and single parent households (12.9%). Non-family living arrangements account for the remaining 15.3%, with single person households at 13.0% and group households representing 2.4% of the total. The median household size is 3.2 people, which is larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

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Local educational attainment levels are lower than regional averages, with 28.9% of residents aged 15+ holding a university degree compared to 37.0% across Greater Melbourne, suggesting opportunities for further training and skill development. Among degree holders, bachelor degrees are the most common at 20.0%, followed by postgraduate degrees (6.9%) and graduate diplomas (2.0%). Vocational qualifications are held by 24.3% of residents aged 15+, consisting of advanced diplomas (10.2%) and certificates (14.1%).

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Public transport options include 117 active transit stops in the area, consisting of bus services. These stops are served by 15 separate routes, which combine to offer 2,440 weekly passenger journeys. Access to transport is favorable, with residents living an average of 223 meters from the nearest stop. Because the area is mainly residential, most workers commute out of the suburb, and private vehicles remain the primary mode of transport at 91%. The average number of vehicles per household is 1.8, which is above the metropolitan average. Census data from 2021 shows that 21.0% of residents worked from home, which may reflect pandemic-era conditions.

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Health indicators show positive outcomes across the locality, based on Districts assessments of mortality rates and chronic illness rates, with younger age groups showing particularly low rates of common conditions. The proportion of residents with private health insurance is relatively low at approximately 51% of the population (~16,357 people), compared to 56.7% across Greater Melbourne.

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Culturally diverse communities are highly represented in the locality, with 55.6% of residents born outside Australia and 63.5% speaking a non-English language at home. Christianity is the most common religious affiliation, selected by 37.4% of residents. However, Buddhism shows the most significant concentration relative to broader averages, accounting for 20.6% of the population compared to the Greater Melbourne average of 4.2%.

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The median age in the locality is 36 years, which is close to the Greater Melbourne average of 37 and slightly below the Australian median of 38. Compared to Greater Melbourne, the area has a higher share of residents aged 45 - 54 (13.3%) but a lower share of those aged 25 - 34 (13.5%). Since the 2021 Census, the proportion of residents aged 75 to 84 has increased from 4.3% to 5.6%, while the 0 to 4 age group has decreased from 6.2% to 5.0%. Demographic modeling projects that the age distribution will shift by 2041, with the 45 to 54 cohort expected to grow the fastest at 36%, adding people to reach a total of while the to group is projected to grow by just ( people).

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Keysborough currently has an estimated 1,600 children under 5 years old, comprising approximately 960 children aged 0-2 and 640 children aged 3-4. This cohort declined by an estimated 14% since the previous census. though population forecasts indicate future growth, with an anticipated increase of 3% by 2041 (to approximately 1,645 children). Meanwhile the 5-12 cohort currently amounts to 3,271. Birth rates in the area have averaged 10.5 per 1,000 residents over the latest two-year period, a moderate rate (within the middle tier nationally).