Smythes Creek (Vic.)

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According to investigations of ABS population revisions for the broader district, alongside new addresses validated by Districts since the Census, the population of the suburb of Smythes Creek is estimated to be approximately 3,083 as of May 2026. This represents a growth of 1,321 people (75.0%) since the 2021 Census, which documented a population of 1,762 people. The shift is calculated from the resident population of 3,077, estimated by Districts following analysis of the most recent ERP data release by the ABS (June 2025) and an extra 320 validated new addresses since the Census date. This population size corresponds to a density ratio of 112 persons per square kilometer, offering considerable space per person and possible capacity for subsequent development. The 75.0% growth of the suburb of Smythes Creek since the 2021 census outpaced the Rest of Vic. (4.3%), as well as the SA4 region, establishing it as a regional growth leader. Population gains for the area were mostly propelled by interstate migration that made up roughly of overall population increases during recent periods, although all components including natural growth and overseas migration were positive contributors.

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Smythes Creek features a skilled workforce, with essential services sectors well represented, an unemployment rate of only 3.6%, and 8.8% in estimated employment growth over the past year, based on Districts aggregation of statistical area data. As of March 2026, 2,009 residents are in work while the unemployment rate is in line with Regional Vic.'s rate of 3.7%, and workforce participation is well beyond standard (86.7% compared to Regional Vic.'s 61.1%). Based on Census responses, a moderate 15.3% of residents were found to work from home, though Covid-19 lockdown impacts should be considered.

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Districts' latest postcode level ATO data for financial year 2023 reveals that income in the suburb of Smythes Creek is lower than average on a national basis, with the median assessed at $51,493 while the average income stands at $60,204. This contrasts to Regional Vic.'s figures of a median income of $50,954 and an average income of $62,728. Based on Wage Price Index growth of 9.62% since financial year 2023, current estimates would be approximately $56,447 (median) and $65,996 (average) as of March 2026. According to 2021 Census figures, household income ranks at the 74th percentile ($2,132 weekly), while personal income sits at the 52nd percentile. The data shows the $1,500 - 2,999 bracket dominates with 39.5% of residents ( people), aligning with the metropolitan region where this cohort likewise represents . After housing costs, residents retain of income, reflecting strong purchasing power and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the th decile.

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Dwelling structure within Smythes Creek, as evaluated at the latest Census, comprised 100.0% houses and no other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), in comparison to Regional Vic.'s 90.1% houses and 9.9% other dwellings. Meanwhile, the level of home ownership within Smythes Creek was lagging that of Regional Vic., at 36.5%, with the remainder of dwellings either mortgaged (53.9%) or rented (9.6%). The median monthly mortgage repayment in the area was well above the Regional Vic. average at $1,647, while the median weekly rent figure was recorded at $395, compared to Regional Vic.'s $1,430 and $285. Nationally, Smythes Creek's mortgage repayments are significantly lower than the Australian average of $1,863, while rents are exceeding the national figure of $375.

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Family households dominate at 86.0% of all households, comprising 44.9% couples with children, 32.2% couples without children, and 8.4% single parent families. Non-family households make up the remaining 14.0%, with lone person households at 11.4% and group households comprising 2.3% of the total. The median household size of 3.1 people is larger than the Regional Vic. average of 2.4.

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The locality experiences educational obstacles, with university qualification levels (20.1%) being considerably below the VIC average of 33.4%. This represents both a hurdle and a chance for focused educational campaigns. Bachelor degrees are most common at 13.6%, followed by postgraduate credentials (3.4%) and graduate diplomas (3.1%). Vocational and technical training are highly visible, with 39.9% of residents aged 15+ possessing vocational qualifications – advanced diplomas (10.5%) and certificates (29.4%).

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Public transport review shows 4 active transport stops operating within Smythes Creek. These stops are serviced by 3 individual routes, collectively providing 401 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is rated as limited, with residents typically located 1438 meters from the nearest transport stop. As a primarily residential area, most residents commute outward - car remains the dominant mode at 97%. Vehicle ownership averages 2.4 per dwelling, above the regional average. Some 15.3% of residents work from home (2021 Census; may reflect COVID-19 conditions).

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Health measures indicate below-average wellness outcomes in Smythes Creek, based on Districts' evaluation of mortality indices and chronic condition prevalence, with standard health issues slightly more common than average across both youth and elderly age bands, and the rate of private health insurance coverage found to be quite low at approximately 51% of the overall population (~1,562 people). The national average is 55.7%.

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Smythes Creek was found to be below average in terms of cultural diversity, with 91.5% of its population born in Australia, 94.7% being citizens, and 95.5% speaking English only at home. The main religion in Smythes Creek was found to be Christianity, which makes up 45.1% of people in Smythes Creek. However, the most apparent overrepresentation was in Other, which comprises 1.2% of the population, compared to 0.8% across Regional Vic..

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At 35 years, Smythes Creek's median age is significantly below the Regional Vic. average of 43 as well as somewhat younger than the Australian median of 38. Compared to the Regional Vic. average, the 25 - 34 cohort is notably over-represented (17.5% locally), while 65 - 74 year-olds are under-represented (6.8%). Following the 2021 Census, younger residents have shifted the median age down by 3.1 years to 35. In particular, the 25 to 34 age group has grown from 10.2% to 17.5% of the population, while the 35 to 44 cohort increased from 11.2% to 14.5%. Conversely, the 45 to 54 cohort has declined from to and the to group dropped from to . Demographic modeling suggests Smythes Creek's age profile will evolve significantly by . The to cohort shows the strongest projected growth at , adding residents to reach .

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Smythes Creek currently has an estimated 295 children under 5 years old, comprising approximately 127 children aged 0-2 and 83 children aged 3-4. This cohort grew by an estimated 166% since the previous census. while population forecasts indicate future growth, with an anticipated increase of 209% by 2041 (to approximately 913 children). Meanwhile the 5-12 cohort currently amounts to 333. While growth has been positive birth rates observed in the area have been moderate, with approximately 9.1 births per 1,000 residents recorded over the latest two-year period analysed which ranks the area within the middle tier nationally.