Lucas (Vic.)

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According to ABS population updates for the wider region and recent address validations by Districts since the Census, the suburb of Lucas has an estimated population of 4,661 as of May 2026. This indicates a rise of 1,667 people (55.7%) compared to the 2021 Census, which recorded 2,994 people. The change is calculated from the resident population of 4,652, estimated by Districts using the June 2025 ERP release from the ABS alongside 676 validated new addresses since the Census. This population corresponds to a density of 2,035 persons per square kilometer, which is greater than the typical density across national locations analyzed by Districts. The 55.7% expansion in the suburb of Lucas since the 2021 census outpaced the Rest of Vic. (4.3%) and the SA4 region, positioning it as a growth leader. Interstate migration was the main driver of population growth, accounting for approximately 74.0% of the total gains, though all factors including natural increase and overseas migration made positive contributions.

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Lucas has a well-educated labor force with strong representation in essential services, an unemployment rate of only 2.0%, and an estimated employment growth of 4.2% over the last year, according to statistical area data compiled by Districts. In March 2026, there were 2,424 employed residents, while the unemployment rate was 1.7% lower than the Regional Vic. rate of 3.7%. The workforce participation rate of 69.1% is also significantly higher than the Regional Vic. average of 61.1%. Census data indicates that a moderate 17.3% of residents worked from home, although this may have been influenced by Covid-19 lockdown restrictions.

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According to the latest ATO data aggregated by Districts for the 2023 financial year, income levels in Lucas are higher than the national average. The median income for taxpayers is $55,128, while the average income is $70,598, compared to Regional Vic. figures of $50,954 and $62,728 respectively. Adjusted for a Wage Price Index growth of 9.62% since the 2023 financial year, current estimates as of March 2026 would be roughly $60,431 for the median and $77,390 for the average. Census records show household, family, and personal incomes in Lucas sit around the 66th percentile nationally. Income distribution shows that the $1,500 - 2,999 weekly earnings bracket accounts for 38.6% of the community (1,799 individuals), which aligns with the metropolitan average of 30.3% in this bracket. High housing costs account for of income, but strong earnings keep disposable income at the rd percentile, and the SEIFA income decile for the area is .

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According to the latest Census, the housing structure in Lucas consisted of 97.7% houses and 2.3% other dwellings (such as semi-detached homes, apartments, and alternative dwellings), compared to 90.1% houses and 9.9% other dwellings across Regional Vic. Home ownership in Lucas lagged behind the regional average at 21.8%, with the remaining properties being mortgaged (43.5%) or rented (34.7%). The median monthly mortgage payment of $1,700 was higher than the Regional Vic. average of $1,430, while the median weekly rent was $380 compared to $285 regionally. Nationally, mortgage payments in Lucas are below the Australian average of $1,863, whereas weekly rents exceed the national average of $375.

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Family households represent the majority of homes at 75.4%, consisting of couples with children at 38.6%, couples without children at 23.3%, and single parents at 12.6%. Non-family households account for 24.6% of the total, with single-person households at 20.7% and group households at 4.0%. The median household size is 2.8 people, which is larger than the Regional Vic. average of 2.4.

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Educational attainment in Lucas is high compared to surrounding areas, with 32.9% of residents aged 15 and over holding a university qualification, compared to 21.7% in the Rest of Vic. and 24.6% in the SA4 region. This education profile positions the population well for knowledge-based employment. Bachelor degrees are held by 20.8% of residents, followed by postgraduate degrees (8.4%) and graduate diplomas (3.7%). Vocational and technical training is also common, with 34.1% of residents aged 15 and over holding vocational qualifications, including advanced diplomas (11.5%) and certificates (22.6%).

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Public transport analysis shows 7 active transit stops in Lucas. These stops are served by 1 routes, which provide a total of 234 passenger trips each week. Transport access is rated as good, with residents living an average of 315 meters from the nearest stop. The suburb is primarily residential, and 97% of commuting residents travel by car. Vehicle ownership averages 1.5 per household. According to the 2021 Census, 17.3% of residents work from home, which may reflect pandemic-related conditions.

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Health measures indicate below-average outcomes in Lucas based on Districts assessments of mortality and chronic illness. Common health conditions are slightly more frequent than average across both young and old cohorts, while private health insurance cover is high at approximately 55% of the population (~2,550 people). This compares to 50.5% in Regional Vic.

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Lucas is more culturally diverse than most local markets, with 22.3% of the population born overseas and 21.0% speaking a language other than English at home. Christianity is the primary religion, representing 41.8% of residents. The most notable difference is in the Other category, which accounts for 2.9% of the population compared to 0.8% across Regional Vic.

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The median age in Lucas is 32 years, which is lower than the Regional Vic. average of 43 and the national median of 38. Compared to Regional Vic., Lucas has a higher share of residents aged 25 - 34 (18.4%) but fewer aged 55 - 64 (5.7%). Since the 2021 Census, the 25 to 34 age bracket has risen from 16.7% to 18.4%, and the 35 to 44 age bracket has increased from 16.3% to 17.6%, while the 5 to 14 cohort declined from 15.7% to 13.9%. Significant demographic shifts are expected by led by the to age group which is projected to grow by (an increase of people) to reach from .

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Lucas currently has an estimated 428 children under 5 years old, comprising approximately 183 children aged 0-2 and 122 children aged 3-4. This cohort grew by an estimated 45% since the previous census. while population forecasts indicate future growth, with an anticipated increase of 63% by 2041 (to approximately 699 children). Meanwhile the 5-12 cohort currently amounts to 598. Recent growth has been driven by high birth rates observed in the area, with approximately 12.8 births per 1,000 residents recorded over the latest two-year period analysed which ranks the area among the top 20% of areas assessed nationally.