Winter Valley (Vic.)

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Analysis of ABS population updates for the wider region, alongside newly validated addresses by Districts since the Census, indicates the population of the suburb of Winter Valley is approximately 5,403 as of May 2026. This represents a growth of 1,963 people (57.1%) relative to the 2021 Census, which documented a population of 3,440 people. This adjustment is derived from a resident population of 5,379, calculated by Districts using the latest ERP data release from the ABS (June 2025) and an additional 1,219 validated new addresses since the Census date. Such a population size translates to a density ratio of 1,098 persons per square kilometer, which aligns closely with average figures observed across areas evaluated by Districts. The suburb of Winter Valley's 57.1% growth since the 2021 census outpaced the Rest of Vic. (4.3%) as well as the SA4 region, establishing it as a regional growth leader. Population expansion in the area was mostly fueled by interstate migration, which accounted for roughly of total population increases in recent times, though all contributors, including natural growth and overseas migration, remained positive.

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The suburb of Winter Valley possesses a skilled workforce with strong representation in essential services, showing an unemployment rate of 5.2% based on Districts aggregation of statistical area data. As of March 2026, 2,553 residents are employed, which is an unemployment rate 1.5% higher than the Regional Vic. rate of 3.7%, while workforce participation is significantly elevated (68.1% compared to Regional Vic.'s 61.1%). According to Census responses, a minor 13.0% of residents worked from home, though the influence of Covid-19 lockdowns should be taken into account.

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Based on Districts' aggregation of the latest postcode level ATO data released for financial year 2023, taxpayers in the suburb of Winter Valley recorded a median income of $59,666 and an average income of $68,779. This is slightly higher than the national average and compares to figures of $50,954 and $62,728 across Regional Vic. respectively. Factoring in Wage Price Index growth of 9.62% since financial year 2023, current estimates stand at approximately $65,406 (median) and $75,396 (average) as of March 2026. Census 2021 income data reveals household, family, and personal earnings in the suburb of Winter Valley align around the 68th percentile nationally. Regarding income brackets, the $1,500 - 2,999 range is the most common, accounting for 49.0% of residents ( people), mirroring the surrounding region where fall into this bracket. High housing costs absorb of income, yet strong earnings keep disposable income at the th percentile, and the area's SEIFA income ranking places it in the th decile.

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Dwelling structure in the suburb of Winter Valley, as recorded in the latest Census, consisted of 100.0% houses and no other dwellings (semi-detached, apartments, 'other' dwellings), compared to Regional Vic.'s 90.1% houses and 9.9% other dwellings. At the same time, the rate of home ownership in the suburb of Winter Valley was below that of Regional Vic. at 16.5%, with the remaining properties either mortgaged (58.8%) or rented (24.8%). The median monthly mortgage payment in the area was significantly above the Regional Vic. average at $1,600, while the median weekly rent was recorded at $390, compared to Regional Vic.'s $1,430 and $285. Nationally, the suburb of Winter Valley's mortgage repayments are substantially lower than the Australian average of $1,863, whereas weekly rents exceed the national figure of $375.

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Family households make up the majority at 80.0% of all households, consisting of 39.7% couples with children, 27.0% couples without children, and 11.6% single parent families. Non-family households account for the remaining 20.0%, with single person households representing 16.1% and group households comprising 4.4% of the total. The median household size of 2.9 people is larger than the Regional Vic. average of 2.4.

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Educational attainment in the suburb of Winter Valley is below regional benchmarks, with 23.7% of residents aged 15+ holding university degrees compared to 33.4% in VIC. This difference points to opportunities for educational growth and skill development. Bachelor degrees are the most common at 17.3%, followed by postgraduate qualifications (4.1%) and graduate diplomas (2.3%). Vocational and technical skills are highly represented, with 41.0% of residents aged 15+ holding vocational credentials, including advanced diplomas (11.5%) and certificates (29.5%).

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Public transport analysis indicates 3 active transport stops operate within the suburb of Winter Valley. These stops are served by 1 individual routes, providing a total of 194 weekly passenger trips. Transport accessibility is classified as limited, with residents typically situated 865 meters from the nearest stop. Being primarily residential, most residents commute out of the suburb, and the private car remains the dominant mode of transport at 97%. Vehicle ownership averages 1.8 per dwelling, which is above the regional average. A relatively low 13.0% of residents work from home (2021 Census; may reflect COVID-19 conditions).

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Health indicators point to below-average outcomes in the suburb of Winter Valley, based on Districts' evaluation of mortality rates and chronic condition prevalence, with common health conditions slightly more frequent than average across both younger and older cohorts, and the private health coverage rate being relatively high at approximately 54% of the total population (~2,918 people). This compares to 50.5% across Regional Vic..

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The suburb of Winter Valley ranks below average in cultural diversity, with 88.5% of its population born in Australia, 91.2% holding citizenship, and 89.9% speaking only English at home. The predominant religion is Christianity, representing 38.6% of residents in the suburb of Winter Valley. However, the most visible overrepresentation is in Other, which accounts for 2.4% of the population compared to 0.8% across Regional Vic..

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With a median age of 27, the suburb of Winter Valley is younger than the Regional Vic. median of 43 and falls below Australia's median of 38 years. Relative to Regional Vic., the suburb of Winter Valley has a higher concentration of residents aged 25 - 34 (27.1%) but fewer residents aged 65 - 74 (3.3%). This 25 - 34 concentration is well above the national level of 14.6%. Since the 2021 Census, the median age has decreased by 1.8 years, falling to 27 from 29. Specifically, the 25 to 34 age bracket grew from 23.4% to 27.1% of the population, while the 35 to cohort increased from to . On the other hand, the to cohort declined from to and the to group dropped from to . Demographic modeling indicates the age profile of the suburb of Winter Valley will shift significantly by . The to age group is projected to expand by people (), rising from to .

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Winter Valley currently has an estimated 588 children under 5 years old, comprising approximately 278 children aged 0-2 and 185 children aged 3-4. This cohort grew by an estimated 69% since the previous census. while population forecasts indicate future growth, with an anticipated increase of 126% by 2041 (to approximately 1,326 children). Meanwhile the 5-12 cohort currently amounts to 593. Recent growth has been driven by high birth rates observed in the area, with approximately 22.3 births per 1,000 residents recorded over the latest two-year period analysed which ranks the area among the top 20% of areas assessed nationally.