Narre Warren South (Vic.)

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Following assessment of geographic demographic updates compiled by the ABS alongside recent addresses confirmed by Districts post-Census, the suburb of Narre Warren South has an estimated resident count of 31,417 as of May 2026. This represents a growth of 508 people (1.6%) relative to the 30,909 people documented in the 2021 Census. This adjustment is derived from the resident population of 31,417 calculated by Districts using the ABS June 2025 release of ERP data combined with 83 validated new addresses registered after the Census. The local population density stands at 2,374 persons per square kilometer, which ranks within the top quartile of national areas analyzed by Districts. The primary driver of this demographic expansion was overseas migration, which accounted for approximately 64.0% of the overall population increases in recent times.

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The suburb of Narre Warren South features a qualified labour force, with particularly high representation in the building trades, an unemployment rate of 5.5%, and an estimated job growth rate of 4.4% over the prior year, based on Districts' compiled regional statistics. As of March 2026, there are 17,444 employed residents, with the unemployment rate tracking 0.8% higher than the Greater Melbourne average of 4.8%, while the participation rate is solid at 73.2% compared to 70.2% across Greater Melbourne. Census records indicate that a moderate 20.6% of the workforce operated from home, though this figure may have been influenced by COVID-19 pandemic restrictions.

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According to the most recent postcode-level ATO data compiled by Districts for the 2023 financial year, personal earnings in Narre Warren South track below the national standard, with a median of $51,185 and an average of $60,683. In comparison, Greater Melbourne recorded a median income of $57,688 and an average of $75,164. Adjusting for a 9.62% increase in the Wage Price Index since the 2023 financial year, current figures are estimated to be approximately $56,109 for the median and $66,521 for the average as of March 2026. Data from the 2021 Census shows that weekly household income is positioned at the 75th percentile ($2,158 weekly), whereas individual income is at the 38th percentile. The dominant income bracket is the $1,500 - 2,999 range, which accounts for of residents ( people), mirroring metropolitan patterns where of the population falls into this category. Local housing expenses take up of income, yet solid overall household earnings keep disposable income at the th percentile, and the SEIFA index ranks the area in the th decile for economic advantage.

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According to the latest Census, the housing mix in the suburb of Narre Warren South consisted of 93.0% standalone houses and 6.9% alternative housing types, such as townhouses, apartments, and other dwellings, contrasting with Greater Melbourne where standalone houses comprised 67.9% and alternative dwellings made up 32.1%. Outright home ownership in the suburb of Narre Warren South stood at 24.6%, lower than the metropolitan average, with the remaining residences being paid off under a mortgage (58.5%) or occupied by tenants (16.9%). The median monthly mortgage payment of $1,937 was below the Greater Melbourne average of $2,000, while the median weekly rent of $401 was slightly above the metropolitan rate of $390. From a national perspective, mortgage commitments in the suburb of Narre Warren South exceed the Australian average of $1,863, and weekly rents are also higher than the national figure of $375.

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Family households represent the vast majority of local homes at 88.6%, consisting of couples with children at 55.6%, couples without children at 19.5%, and single parent households at 12.7%. Non-family households account for the remaining 11.4%, with single-person households representing 10.0% and group housing comprising 1.4%. The median household occupancy stands at 3.4 people, which is larger than the Greater Melbourne average of 2.6.

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The local population displays lower levels of tertiary attainment, with university graduation rates at 22.1% compared to the Greater Melbourne average of 37.0%. Among those with degrees, bachelor qualifications are the most common at 15.2%, followed by postgraduate degrees at 4.9% and graduate diplomas at 2.0%. Technical and vocational skills are widely held, with 33.1% of residents aged 15+ possessing vocational qualifications, including advanced diplomas at 12.2% and certificate-level credentials at 20.9%.

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Analysis of local transit options shows 110 active bus stops operating in the suburb of Narre Warren South. These stops are connected to 10 distinct routes, which provide a total of 2,065 passenger trips each week. Access to public transport is rated highly, with local homes positioned an average of 235 meters from the nearest stop. Given the residential nature of the suburb, most workers commute out of the area, and private cars are the primary mode of travel at 92%. Dwellings have an average of 2.0 vehicles, which is above the metropolitan average. At the time of the 2021 Census, 20.6% of employed residents worked from home, which may reflect conditions during pandemic lockdowns.

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Local health indicators show positive trends for residents of the suburb of Narre Warren South, with Districts' evaluation of mortality data and medical diagnoses showing outcomes consistent with national standards, typical rates of chronic conditions across youth and elderly populations, and private health insurance membership standing at a relatively low 51% of the population (~15,978 people). This compares to a coverage level of 56.7% across Greater Melbourne.

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The community has a high level of multicultural representation, with 42.0% of residents born outside Australia and 42.4% speaking a language other than English in their homes. Christianity is the most common religious affiliation, representing 42.6% of the local population. However, the most distinct deviation from regional averages is in Islam, which is practiced by 16.8% of residents, representing a significantly higher share than the Greater Melbourne average of 5.6%.

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The median age in the suburb of Narre Warren South is 34 years, which is younger than the Greater Melbourne median of 37 years and the national median of 38 years. Compared to Greater Melbourne, there is a higher proportion of residents aged 15 - 24 (18.0%) but a smaller share of people aged 25 - 34 (11.9%). The concentration of residents aged 15 - 24 is also higher than the Australian average of 12.7%. Since the 2021 Census, the proportion of residents aged 65 to 74 grew from 5.8% to 7.0%, while the 15 to 24 cohort rose from 16.8% to 18.0%. Conversely, the to age group decreased from to and the to bracket fell from to . Projections for the year suggest major shifts in the age structure of the suburb of Narre Warren South. The to age bracket is expected to grow the fastest, increasing by and adding residents to total while population decreases are forecast for the to and to age cohorts.

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Narre Warren South currently has an estimated 1,790 children under 5 years old, comprising approximately 1,061 children aged 0-2 and 710 children aged 3-4. This cohort declined by an estimated 3% since the previous census. while population forecasts indicate future decline, with an anticipated decrease of 1% by 2041 (to approximately 1,774 children). Meanwhile the 5-12 cohort currently amounts to 3,540. Birth rates in the area have averaged 10.6 per 1,000 residents over the latest two-year period, a moderate rate (within the middle tier nationally). This rate has slowed down slightly in recent years however.