Shell Cove (NSW)

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Using data from ABS population revisions for the wider region alongside newly verified addresses from Districts since the Census, the suburb of Shell Cove has a population estimated at approximately 8,462 in May 2026. This represents an expansion of 871 people (11.5%) from the 2021 Census, which registered 7,591 residents. This shift is calculated from a resident base of 8,412, calculated by Districts using the ABS ERP release from June 2025 combined with 475 validated new addresses added after the Census. This population level yields a density of 837 persons per square kilometer, which aligns closely with typical densities in regions evaluated by Districts. The 11.5% growth rate for the suburb of Shell Cove since the 2021 census was higher than the Rest of NSW (4.9%) and its SA4 region, positioning it as a regional growth leader. Population increases were mostly driven by interstate arrivals, which made up roughly 47.0% of the gains, though natural increase and overseas migration also made positive contributions.

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Shell Cove boasts a highly skilled labor pool with strong representation in essential service industries, an unemployment rate of just 3.1%, and an estimated employment growth of 2.9% over the previous year, according to Districts aggregation of statistical area data. As of March 2026, 4,694 residents are employed while the local unemployment rate stands at 1.0% below the Regional NSW average of 4.1%, and workforce participation exceeds standard levels at 71.5% compared to 60.6% in Regional NSW. Census data indicates that 33.8% of residents work from home, although the influence of Covid-19 lockdown measures should be taken into account.

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According to financial year 2023 ATO statistics aggregated by Districts, tax returns show that Shell Cove has an income profile well above the national benchmark. Taxpayers in the area recorded a median income of $59,452 and an average income of $75,873, compared to $52,390 and $65,215 respectively for Regional NSW. Adjusting for a Wage Price Index increase of 10.32% since financial year 2023, estimated incomes would be approximately $65,587 for the median and $83,703 for the average in March 2026. The 2021 Census ranks household incomes in the top tier at the 89th percentile, with a weekly median of $2,452. The largest income bracket contains 30.3% of households earning between $1,500 and $2,999 weekly, which represents residents and matches the broader region where fall into this bracket. Economic capacity is highlighted by the of households earning more than weekly, which underpins local retail activity. Housing costs consume of income, while strong weekly earnings place residents in the th percentile for disposable funds, and the SEIFA index ranks the area in the th decile for income.

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Census data reveals that residential properties in Shell Cove consist of 87.6% houses and 12.4% alternative options such as townhouses, semi-detached properties, and apartments, compared to Regional NSW where houses make up 82.6% and other dwellings comprise 17.4%. Home ownership rates in the suburb stand at 36.7%, slightly below the regional benchmark, with the remaining properties occupied by residents with a mortgage (43.1%) or renting (20.2%). The median mortgage payment of $2,386 per month is significantly above the Regional NSW average of $1,733, and the median rent of $600 per week exceeds the regional average of $330. Nationally, local mortgage commitments are higher than the Australian median of $1,863, and weekly rents are well above the national median of $375.

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Families make up the vast majority of local households at 87.3%, consisting of couples with dependent children at 47.9%, couples without children at 31.0%, and single parent households at 8.2%. Non-family households comprise the remaining 12.7%, with single-person households representing 11.3% and group housing accounting for 1.2%. The median household size is 3.0 individuals, which is larger than the Regional NSW average of 2.4.

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Formal qualifications among Shell Cove residents are lower than regional averages, with 25.2% of individuals aged 15+ holding a tertiary degree compared to 32.2% across NSW. This variance points to opportunities for future skills development. Bachelor degrees represent the most common degree qualification at 16.9%, followed by postgraduate degrees at 5.4% and graduate diplomas at 2.9%. Practical and vocational skills are well represented, with 41.1% of residents aged 15+ holding qualifications from vocational institutions, consisting of advanced diplomas (13.4%) and certificates (27.7%).

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Public transport infrastructure in Shell Cove includes 31 active bus stops. These stops are served by 28 separate routes, providing a total of 483 weekly passenger trips. The area is highly accessible, with residents living an average of 222 meters from their nearest transport connection. As a commuter suburb, most residents travel outside the area for work, with private vehicles remaining the primary mode of travel for 96% of commuters. Average vehicle ownership is 1.9 cars per household, which is higher than the regional average. Census data from 2021 indicates that 33.8% of employed residents worked from home, which may reflect pandemic-related conditions.

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Based on Districts analysis of mortality statistics and chronic health patterns, Shell Cove residents experience favorable health outcomes overall. While the rate of common health issues is low among the general community, it is higher than the national average within elderly and vulnerable groups. Private health insurance coverage is high, with approximately 57% of residents (~4,814 people) holding coverage, compared to 51.9% in Regional NSW.

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Shell Cove displays cultural diversity metrics that are consistent with regional averages. The population is 82.2% Australian-born, 93.2% are citizens, and 87.7% speak only English at home. The predominant religion is Christianity, representing 61.7% of the community, which is higher than the 55.9% recorded across Regional NSW.

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The median age of residents is 40 years, which is slightly younger than the Regional NSW average of 43 years but slightly older than the Australian median of 38 years. Compared to Regional NSW, the suburb has a higher concentration of people in the 35 - 44 age bracket (14.7%) and a lower share of people in the 25 - 34 age bracket (8.1%). Since the 2021 Census, the proportion of residents aged 75 to 84 has increased from 5.0% to 6.1%. In contrast, the 45 to 54 group decreased from 15.3% to 13.9%, and the 5 to 14 cohort declined from 15.0% to 13.8%. Population forecasts for indicate significant demographic shifts, with the to age group expected to expand by people (), growing from to .

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Shell Cove currently has an estimated 482 children under 5 years old, comprising approximately 269 children aged 0-2 and 179 children aged 3-4. This cohort grew by an estimated 13% since the previous census. while population forecasts indicate future growth, with an anticipated increase of 40% by 2041 (to approximately 676 children). Meanwhile the 5-12 cohort currently amounts to 882. While growth has been positive birth rates observed in the area have been moderate, with approximately 8.4 births per 1,000 residents recorded over the latest two-year period analysed which ranks the area among the bottom 30% of areas assessed nationally. This rate has slowed down slightly in recent years however.